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How Washington beats Baylor Baylor University (9-3) meets the University of Washington (7-5) in the Valero Alamo Bowl on December 29.
As a result of Troy's ineligibility, all the bowl eligible teams in the Pac-12 behind Stanford (Fiesta Bowl) and Oregon (Rose Bowl) are matched against stronger teams than otherwise would be the case. Lopsided matchups, like the Alamo Bowl, hurt the national perception of the Pac-12 Conference and should be of concern to Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott and NCAA President Mark Emmert. NCAA infractions committees aren't playing on the same level field, and Emmert needs to hammer out the inequities and double standards in sanctions being meted out to member schools. The same bias that exists in the NCAA is also prevalent in the "east coast mafia" (i. e, the east coast media), the two factions feeding off one another. The television broadcast of the Alamo Bowl has the promise of being un-BEAR-able to watch for Dawg fans. So, I'm stuck with trying too make a case for the Huskies in what appears to be a one-sided affair. Behind the passing and running of quarterback Robert Griffin III, the high-scoring Baylor team averages 43.5 points per game. Griffin (6-foot-2, 220) was the winner of the 2011 Heisman Trophy. He leads FBS football in passing efficiency with a rating of 192.31, having thrown for 3,998 yards and 36 touchdowns -- against just 6 picks. Also, he's rushed for 644 yards and 9 touchdowns. (photo of Griffin above). As you would expect, Griffin (also known as RG3) has captured the hearts and minds of the east coast media. RB Terrance Ganaway is averaging 112.25 yards rushing and leads a running attack that ranks 18th in the nation. The senior running back has rushed for 1347 yards this season. The Bears rank 2nd in the FBS in total offense. The Huskies, ranked 57th in total offense, are led by Keith Price at quarterback and RB Chris Polk. Price the 2011 winner of Washington's oldest and most prestigious award, the Guy Flaherty Award, ranks 12th in passing efficiency. Polk, the Dawgs' MVP, is averaging 111.75 rushing yards per game, ranking 16th in that category. Winning the turnover battle would add life to Washington's chances. But short of that note that both teams field defenses that are somewhat lacking, to say the least. In pass defense and total defense, Washington ranks 116th and 94th in FBS football, respectively. Baylor, on the other hand, ranks 114th in total defense: 112th in pass defense and 102nd in run defense. The Bears' three losses have all been on the road, games in which Baylor averaged 29 points per game while giving up an average of 50 points. Since Waco is three hours away from San Antonio, the Alamo Bowl is practically a home game for Baylor. Here's how the Huskies win. In its 7 wins this season, Washington has held its opponents to 49.6 yards rushing, while in its 5 losses, UW has given up 273.9 rushing yards per game. Ironically, the data below suggests that stopping the run has been UW's most critical defensive statistic this season, pass defense notwithstanding.
Based on the data above, let's assume Griffin has a field day passing the ball and Baylor doesn't need to run too much, accumulating less than 100 yards on the ground. So ... My pick: Washington 42, Baylor 38 Stewart Mandel (Sports Illustrated) says that Griffin could have a "Heisman Hangover" by game time and calls for an upset. Previous meetings: The Bears have won three of the four previous clashes. Washington beat Baylor 35-14 in the 1964 season, coming off a 3-2 loss to Air Force. The first time Washington got its hands on the ball, Steve Bramwell returned a punt 67 yards for a touchdown to set the Huskies offense in high gear. Showing no ill effects from a knee injury suffered in the Rose Bowl on January 1st, QB Bill Douglas passed for 94 yards and rushed for 44. Led by LB Rick Redman, the Huskies' defense held Baylor to minus-11 yards rushing, though the Bears passed for 327 yards. Lawrence Elkins, the Bears' All-American flanker-back, caught one pass, a 65-yard TD throw, and on the ensuing kickoff was ejected from the game for punching a Washington player. Note that the Huskies used the same formula for winning in 1964 as we're suggesting for the 2011 Alamo Bowl, being outgained 316 to 283 yards.
The Huskies' trick play: Washington took a
delay-of-game penalty that allowed it to change
platoons. That is, on a fourth down punt situation, the Huskies took a
delay penalty to avoid taking a precious timeout to send in the right
platoon. Bridgers had high praise for UW fullback Junior Coffey, and also for Redman, Bramwell, and Douglas. Comparative Statistics Out of the 26 statistical measures shown in Table 1 below, Baylor wins 15 of them, with 1 tied. Table 1. Comparative Statistics in 2011 In columns 3 and 5, the first number represents the team's rank in the conference, while the second number represents the team's rank in FBS football (out of 120 teams).
1. Ball Control
2. Blocking and Tackling
3. Mistakes
4. Field Position
5. Scoreboard, Baby
Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
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The Baylor Bears, ranked 12th in the BCS, are
on a five-game winning streak. An unwitting victim of the