|
Articles
|
Mal's picks in the Pac
Five second tier teams are in a crap shoot for fifth place, namely, Stanford, Washington, Arizona, UCLA, and ASU. Washington State, rounding out our picks, serves as a benchmark for determining ease of schedule. WSU on the road counts as a home away from home (Table 4). See the four tables below for more information. The recruiting data (Table 3) represent the team's average national ranking over the past 5 years, as determined by scout.com. According to these rankings, UCLA (ranked 2nd in the Pac-10 over the last 5 years) could surprise everyone, a team that finishes into the top 4, say, when all is said and done. 1. USC
2009 overall record: 9-4 The Trojans will field the best defensive line in the conference; thus, Kiffin is looking to restore the age-old conference adage, "Nobody runs on the Trojans," unless it's the NCAA, which most people think will run all over them. With a year under his belt, QB Barkley had an excellent spring. If he goes down, he will be replaced by Mitch Mustain, who we think is the best backup QB in the conference. The Trojans have lost all four starters in the defensive backfield. Tight end is of concern. The offensive line lacks depth. Capping the spring, Dillon Baxter ran for 129 yards on 13 carries. Mitch Mustain completed 19 of 29 passes for 299 yards and five TDs. Barkley was 7 for 16 for 87 yards. Playing UCLA at the Rose Bowl definitely counts as a road game. 2. Oregon
2009 overall record: 10-3 The secondary is deep. Offense should be good. The defense should improve (fourth in the conference in 2009). This fall Costa will be pushed by sophomore Darron Thomas at quarterback. The starting kicking position is up for grabs. At running back, LaMichael James sits on the front burner; he rushed for 1546 yards last season and will be backed up by Kenjon Barner. On the backburner, true freshman Lache Seastrunk, who has posted a 10.33 in the 100m, looks to turn up the heat if needed. "We have enough playmakers at the other spots that the quarterback of this offense does not have to be the focal point. He has to be like the point guard in basketball, distributing the ball to the right guys at the right time." — Coach Chip Kelly told the Eugene Register-Guard on his quarterback situation heading into spring, with the suspension of QB Jeremiah Masoli for the 2010 season in mind. 3. California
2009 overall record: 8-5 The Golden Bears finished seventh in the conference in total defense last season, but look to improve this season under new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, formerly with the Kansas City Chiefs, who replaces Bob Gregory. The ex-chief can build around linebacker Mike Mohamed, who led the conference in tackles last season (112), and defensive lineman Cameron Jordan, who registered 9.5 tackles-for-a-loss in 2009, with six sacks. Four starters return on the offensive line. Probably, a long shot third; however, I like their Pac-10 schedule, e. g., five home games, including Oregon, with WSU on the road -- Pullman providing five of our teams with a home away from home. Kevin Riley will surprise his detractors. 4. Oregon State
2009 overall record: 8-5 Sophomore quarterback Ryan Katz had an excellent spring, displaying a strong arm and good mobility. In the spring game, Katz completed 9-of-20 passes for 123 yards with one touchdown and one interception. RB Jacquizz Rogers and WR James Rogers give the Beavers a one-two punch on offense. Defensively, the Beavers are solid in the secondary but have defensive front seven issues -- they need someone to step up at middle linebacker -- although all-American candidate Stephen Paea returns to the defensive line. Four starters are back on the offensive line. OSU overachieves every year thanks to the best coach in the conference, Mike Riley. 5. Stanford
2009 overall record: 8-5 Defensively, the front seven should be stronger in 2010. Four starters return to the offensive line, which propelled the Cardinal to having the second best rushing offense in the league (218.2 yards per game). The question remains: who will replace RB Toby Gerhart? With his defense, new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio hopes to maintain the physical identity that Harbaugh has instilled in the team now that the roughshod-riding Gerhart has departed. He's counting on linebackers like Owen Marecic and Shayne Skov and 290-pound NG Sione Fua to make that happen. 6. Washington
2009 overall record: 5-7 With Jake Locker at quarterback, complimented by an array of running backs and a cadre of wide receivers, the Huskies could field the best offense in the Pac-10, this said barring-injury. The offensive and defensive lines lack depth. After the Dawgs play BYU on September 4, we'll know more about the Huskies' defense, which finished eighth in the league last season. The Dawgs need to learn how to win on the road, something they haven't done since November 2007. Washington plays three of the second tier teams at home: Stanford, ASU, and UCLA. Little known fact: Did you know that the chemical symbols for Hydrogen, Uranium, Sulfur, Potassium, Iodine, and Einsteinium spell Huskies? The K for Potassium comes from the Latin word kalium. 7. Arizona
2009 overall record: 8-5 If Foles goes down, Matt Scott provides a strong backup at quarterback, and, in any case, there is a galaxy of fine receivers. The defensive front seven needs to replace three linebackers. RB Nic Grigsby needs to stay healthy. Defensive end Ricky Elmore was second in the Pac-10 in sacks in 2009, averaging 0.81 per game. Elmore sacked Foles on two of the first three plays of the spring game. The offense was ahead of the defense throughout spring, which is not the usual case. "If we can get our linebacker group solidified over the next three months, then definitely I think we can make some improvement," Stoops said after the spring game. 8. UCLA
2009 overall record: 7-6 The offensive and defensive lines, though adequate, have depth issues. Free safety Rahim Moore led the nation in interceptions last year with ten thefts. In spring practices, the new "pistol" offense lacked real bullets, firing some blanks. Field goal kicker Kai Forbath is looking to win his second straight Lou Groza Award. The Bruins' recruiting ranking belies their lowly pick. At UCLA, Neuheisel has put together classes that were ranked tenth, fifth and eighth in the nation by scout.com, telling the Seattle Times, in effect, to take a hike by proving that he is a good recruiter after all. Little known fact: Did you know that the chemical symbols for Boron, Ruthenium, Iodine, Nitrogen and Sulfur spell Bruins? 9. Arizona State
2009 overall record: 4-8 The Sun Devils should be strong on defense, but have questions to answer on the offensive line. Punter Trevor Hankins returns, the league leader in punting average last season at 44.2 yards per punt. ASU needs to cut down on its penalties from last season, posting a league leading 1,016 yards. Noel Mazzone, a New York Jets assistant coach last season, assumes the role of offensive coordinator. After the spring game, Erickson had this to say about his offense, “I thought our tempo was good. We ran 65 plays in the first half. I thought our execution wasn’t very good. We dropped too many balls. We threw too many interceptions. (We gave up) too many sacks. You name it, we did it. Obviously we have to clean that stuff up. When you only score one touchdown in a 48 minute scrimmage, you have to be better than that.”
On defense the Sun Devils will be led by sophomore Vontaze Burfict, a
physical specimen and an NFL prototype, who finished with 69 tackles,
including seven for loss and two sacks. Early in the Washington game
last year, ASU's defense played with a ferocity seldom seen in this
conference in past years, unless it's a USC defense. There were eight
personal-foul penalties, including three by ASU freshman middle
linebacker Burfict, who played like he was wearing a Trojans' jersey
with the number 55 on its back, e. g., Junior Seau.
2009 overall record: 1-11 At quarterback, Jeff Tuel and Marshall Lobbestael both have experience -- a nice duo to have around. Performing ably during the spring game, Tuel completed 11 of 16 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. He was 25-for-41 for 297 yards with three TDs and an interception in three spring scrimmages. Four starters on the offensive line return. The Cougars have won just three games over the past two seasons, and despite all the hoopla this spring, their upcoming season looks bleak on most people's prognosis sheets. Paul Wulff is on the hot seat. How do you like them apples: If you grew up during the Great Depression, the Apple Ipad is a great toy to end lugubrious brooding. Don't rush out to buy it, depression-deprived lads, unless you're fluent with computers, have one at home and have the skills to program the VCR left out in your garage. Table 1. Rating the coaches. See the following link. (Coaches). Table 2. Rating the quarterbacks. See the following link. (Quarterbacks).
Table 3. Average national recruiting ranking
Table 4. Rating the Pac-10 schedule
Richard Linde can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
I think the first four teams in my list --
USC, Oregon, California and Oregon State -- will contend for the roses,
with none of them being a shoo-in.