Locker's passing efficiency on the game against Idaho was a career high, a rating of 192.61. With this game he passed the 50% mark in career completions, which now stands at 50.03%; his career PE is 111.09. In his two games this season, he's completed 60% of his passes, a goal Sark had set for him. (See Table 2 below).

Locker leads the Pac-10 in total offense, averaging 321.5 yards per game. Among the quarterbacks who have thrown at least 25 passes, he ranks third in pass efficiency, posting a rating of 149.6.

Reporter Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times quotes Sarkisian as saying, "I think Jake — I'm going to keep saying it — has all the tools to be as special a player as a quarterback as there is in the country, if not the best. So he keeps showing it. He shows it to us every day, and I think as we keep moving forward here he is going to keep showing it to the rest of the conference and the rest of the country."

In his blog, Condotta quotes Carroll as having this to say about Locker, "I've said this before, I think Jake is one of the best players I've ever seen in this conference, in all the years we've been here,'' Carroll said. "He's the most extraordinary athlete at the position we've seen, and I saw that as a freshman."

As I've been saying on this site, with his physical makeup and athletic skills, Locker reminds me of the young John Elway when he played for Stanford (1979-1982). See "Locker watch: big, bad John." He's the closest fit to Elway I've seen, closer than anybody else I've seen come out of this conference in the last 30 years.

So are the three of us (Sark, Pete and myself) going to have to eat our words about Locker's abilities after Saturday's game against USC? (I put myself in good company, didn't I?) Answer: absolutely not.

Here's why.

Against USC on Saturday, Locker will face a team with a pass efficiency defense of 87.8, fifteenth best in the country. In the past, Locker's passing efficiency in a game has more or less correlated with the PED of the team he is playing.

Two years ago, when the two teams met in Seattle, Locker took a physical beating. He took a helmet to the kidneys on one play and on another was hurled backwards by the inside back of his shoulder pads (a horse collaring, which was legal then). He landed on his back, with his helmeted head bouncing off the field turf.

His PE on the game was a wretched 66.29 (13 of 28 for 90 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception). The ball was slippery and wet, which had an effect on both quarterbacks' performance, John David Booty's, as well. USC came out victorious, 27-24.

Ronnie Fouch played in last year's game with USC, with UW taking a 56-0 drubbing. He was 14 of 33 for 113 yards and no touchdowns, against 3 picks. His PE was 56.04 on the game.

Last week, Terrell Pryor of Ohio State posted a PE of 95.47 against USC, in an 18-15 loss. He was 11 of 25 for 177 yards and no touchdowns, against 1 pick.

In their first game, the Trojans held San Jose State's quarterbacks to a PE of 81.36, based on 15 completions out of 30 attempts for 112 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. The Trojans beat the Spartans 56-3 at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.

Table 1. Correlation between USC's pass efficiency defense and Washington's quarterbacks' passing efficiency over the last 6 years.

Statistically speaking, for Locker to post a PE above 100 on Saturday against USC's pass defense would be a remarkable achievement, according to the table above. Statically the data seem to say that if USC's PED is near to or less than 100, its opposing quarterback's PE will be less than 100 in any particular game. Note the four confirming instances: 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2004.

Maybe that's where (100 or less) the PED computation becomes most significant in college football. For certain having a strong pass rush can't hurt that number, along with having a first-round NFL draft pick playing on the front four. I'm thinking of DE Everson Griffen of USC and DT Brian Price over at UCLA, both of whom I think will be first-round draft picks in the NFL draft. UCLA's PED, 75.25, ranks 7th best in FBS football.

On the other hand Washington's PED is a woeful 150.27, a number that ranks it 101st in the FBS. Either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley, whoever plays for Troy, should have a strong day passing against Washington.

I know, I know. Passing efficiency is a much maligned statistic. Somehow I'd like to see a pick-6 given more weight than other interceptions get in the formula because some interceptions are deadly while others are not, the interception of a Hail Mary for instance.

Like any other quarterback, Locker's performance will depend on his team's ability to run the ball, to give him adequate pass protection and for his receivers to get open and make some catches, the data in the table notwithstanding.

Another caveat: It's imperative that Locker limits his rushes with the ball to avoid the physical pounding he took two years ago against USC, which could have a negative effect on his throwing over the course of the game and on his performance over the rest of the season.

So, how well will Locker throw against USC? The statistics say he will post a poor PE rating, between 70 and 100, say.

Being the heart and soul of the Husky team says otherwise, as do his teammates. Sometimes emotion trumps stats in college football. 

In fact if the Dawgs nip the horse I'll be singing the lyrics to the Large Hadron Rap in honor of the weak force of gravity. Sometimes weak forces can overcome stronger forces. Link to Alpinekat.

Interestingly, USC's quarterback Matt Barkley was likened to a young John Elway by the announcers for the last-ditch drive he engineered against the Buckeyes to win the game.