|
Articles
|
The battle for fifth place: UW versus UA
Separated by just six points in our conference forecast, four teams have a shot at finishing in fifth place behind USC, Oregon, Arizona State and California. See our “Pacific 10 preview” for the formula we used to rank the conference teams. In that spread-sheet analysis, Washington, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona all lie within a six-point range of each other, while the other six teams in the conference are separated from them by margins of twelve points. These four tweeners must overcome some serious graduation losses, which is why they're not ranked in our top four. UCLA needs to cobble together an offensive line and find a healthy quarterback; OSU must replace its defensive front seven; Arizona loses eight defensive starters; and the Huskies lose five wide receivers and five of its six top spots on the defensive line. See "The battle for fifth place." In this article, we preview Washington’s game with Arizona, which will be played in Tucson on October 4th. Schedule: Playing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Huskies should hope to be 2-2 when they travel to Tucson. Although losses to Oregon and Oklahoma are likely, the Dawgs have a decent shot at beating both BYU and Stanford at Husky Stadium before they take on the ‘Cats. Arizona opens the season with Idaho, Toledo and New Mexico before matching up with UCLA in Los Angeles. The ‘Cats could easily be 4-0 upon the Dawgs’ arrival. What’s at stake: Both Washington coach Tyrone Willingham (11-25) and Arizona coach Mike Stoops (17-29) are sitting on some of the nation’s hottest hot seats, according to prevailing wisdom. Whoever wins the game gets a cooler seat, as well as having an inside track for a top-half finish in the conference. Some particulars: Arizona returns: 10 on offense, 3 on defense and 2 skilled Home: UW, Cal, USC, OSU, ASU = (73) Away: UCLA, SU, WSU, UO = (54) * *Degree of difficulty. Conference average is 64. Most of AU’s tough games are at home. Offense: The 'Cats return 10 starters to their offense (the good news), to an offense that ranked 67th in the nation in total offense. However, QB Willie "the Yard Man" Tuitama returns. Tuitama pasted 510 passing yards on the Huskies last season and averaged 306.9 passing yards per game, the second best in the league. Four starters on the OL return, as well as a galaxy of wide receivers. So what could go wrong? Defense: Yep, only 3 starters return to a defense that ranked 53rd in the country. See Table 2 below. MLB Ronnie Palmer, SS Cam Nelson, and FS Nate Ness (neatness?) are the sole veterans. "Defensively we are just going to have to fight and play awfully hard, be prepared, and try to create some opportunities from all levels," coach Stoops has been quoted as saying. "We are going to have to be creative, but that's OK." Defensive coordinator Mark Stoops talks about not having one key defensive player to rely on, per cornerback Antoine Cason last year – which he thinks is an advantage. "I think it will be fun and I think it will be a challenge," Stoops told Ari Wasserman of the Arizona Wildcat after the spring game. "I like their attitude and they are eager to work, to listen and to be coachable. We just need to play fundamentally sound and we have to run around to the football and play hard." Areas for improvement: rushing offense and sacks against, and most likely a whole host of defensive numbers as the season progresses. How they match up: Quarterback: Nod to Arizona. We think Tuitama is the second best quarterback in the league behind Rudy Carpenter at Arizona State. The “Yard Man” finished second in the conference in passing yards per game and in total offense, while sporting a nifty 134.2 passing-efficiency number. Tuitama has a history of head injuries and concussions, so it’s incumbent upon him to stay healthy. Bryson Beirne, his heir apparent, has never thrown a collegiate pass. In the spring game, Tuitama threw for 231 yards on 20 completions out of 36 attempts, including a 29-yard touchdown strike to Mike Thomas. Like Arizona, Washington returns just one experienced quarterback: Jake Locker. Last season, when an injured Locker sat out the Cal game, veteran quarterback Carl Bonnell stepped up to the plate, leading the Dawgs to victory. Bonnell likely helped save Willingham's job, along with former AD Todd Turner, who reportedly took a bullet for Willingham by resigning his job. Running backs: Washington wins out in this category. Jake Locker, whom we include in the running-back category, is the league’s leading returning rusher, having posted 986 total yards. Brandon Johnson (196 yards) had a nice season in 2007, running behind Louis Rankin who has graduated. Big things are expected of incoming freshman Chris Polk, who has been likened to a young Reggie Bush -- you know, both have presidential last names. However, Arizona’s Nic Grigsby (704 yards) and Mike Thomas (173 yards) aren’t that shabby. In the spring scrimmage, the ‘Cats offense scored two touchdowns on the ground, one from expected starter Grigsby and one from reserve Glyndon Bolasky on the final play of the scrimmage. In May, Arizona signed Nick Booth, a 6-foot-2, 225-pound running back from College of Dupage in Glen Ellyn, Ill, which gives the Wildcats added depth for the 2008 season. Pass receivers and tight ends: A big up and down nod of the head goes to the ‘Cats in both categories. Last season, Mike Thomas (1038 yards) finished second in receiving yards per game and led the conference in receptions per game (6.92). Ted Miller (ESPN), who rates Rob Gronkowski (So.) as the best tight end in the league, writes “Don’t be surprised if this 6-foot-6, 260-pound powerhouse earns first-team All-American honors. He averaged 18.8 yards per catch last year because DBs couldn’t tackle him.” (See Miller's blog.) Washington loses 5 of its top receivers to graduation and will depend on some incoming freshmen to re-fly its pass-catching corps. At tight end senior Michael Gottlieb will battle two freshmen for the starting spot (redshirt freshman Chris Izbicki and incoming freshman Kavario Middleton). In our conference forecast we ranked Arizona’s receivers Mike Thomas, Delashaun Dean, Terrell Turner, Terrell Reese) third best in the Pac-10. ESPN’s Miller ranks them as the best receiving unit in the league, while ranking Washington's last. We gave the Huskies a ninth-place nod. Table 1. Arizona pass receivers; 2007 statistics
Offensive line: Arizona's big uglies win this beauty contest as we take Miller head on with our prediction. In our aforementioned forecast, we gave Arizona’s OL (fifth in the league) the nod over Washington’s OL (sixth in the league). Ted Miller ranks UW’s unit third best in the league and Arizona’s sixth. If Washington center Juan Garcia is lost for the whole season due to a foot injury, go with our forecast in spite of what Miller says. To wit: Four starters return from a season ago to an OL that, perhaps, is the strongest positional unit on the Wildcats team. It includes Outland Trophy candidate Eben Britton (6-6, 310). Defensive line: We give the edge to UW despite the fact the Huskies lose 5 of their 6 top spots. Some incoming freshmen offer them hope, the likes of which include Craig Noble (6-foot-3, 300) and Alameda Ta’amu (6-foot-2, 348). Reportedly, Ta’amu is lean and mean at 348, however unlikely that might seem. Daniel Te’o-Nesheim – for you oldsters a Herman Wedemeyer lookalike – tied for ninth in sacks last season registering 8 solo sacks, with one assisted. Miller ranks Te'o-Nesheim sixth best defensive end in the conference. Senior Jonathan Turner (6-3, 255) and sophomore Ricky Elmore (6-5, 260) lend the ‘Cats some experience at end. Turner started six games last season, accumulating 25 tackles and 3.5 sacks, while Elmore played in all 12 games and posted 10 tackles, including 1.5 for loss. According to Ted Miller's blog, "'Jonathan Turner is suspended indefinitely,' until his legal situation is resolved." Redshirt sophomore Lolomana Mikaele (6-2, 260) is expected to start at nose tackle. Junior Donald Horton (6-0, 260) will also see time at tackle. Linebackers: The Dawgs trump the ‘Cats in this category. Leading the Huskies is LB E. J. Savannah, who finished sixth in the conference in tackles last season and registered 111 total tackles. Savannah has been in and out of the coaches’ doghouse, and recently broke his right humorous (arm) bone on 3 June, which the doctors say will require two to three months to heal. We’re guessing he’ll play against Arizona. Savannah was replaced in the early part of spring drills by walk-on Joshua Gage. Trenton Tuiasosopo and Donald Butler shared the middle and Mason Foster started at the other outside spot. MLB Ronnie Palmer (Sr.) returns for Arizona. He was second on the team in total tackles with 83. Two JUCOS bolster its linebacker corps, Vuna Tuihalamaka (6-2, 240) out of El Camino (Calif.) Community College and Sterling Lewis (5-11, 225) from Blinn (Texas) College. The defensive backs: Edge goes to the Huskies because they have an improved unit at the corners and safety positions. Arizona loses Antoine Cason, who finished third in the league in interceptions. One of his five interceptions came in the game against Washington last year, killing the Huskies' final drive of the game, with the Wildcats wining 48-41. With 12:52 to go in the game, UW led 41-26, but Tuitama completed three touchdown passes to take the lead and win the game. SS Cam Nelson (60 tackles) and FS Nate Ness (32 tackles) both return from last season. The other corner, Willie Fontenot, is gone. In May, Arizona signed Anthony Wilcox, a 6-foot-2, 195-pound combo-safety out of Compton, who chose the Wildcats over Florida State, Louisville, Missouri and Arizona State. Wilcox was heavily recruited throughout the year after having 115 tackles and picking off eight passes this past season. Table 2. Status of Arizona defensive leaders from last season
Table 2a. Washington's defensive leaders Thirteen of UW's top eighteen defensive leaders return, including E. J. Savannah, who led the team in tackles last year, and Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, who led the team in sacks with 8.5.
Factoid: Other than DE Te'o Nesheim, punter Jared Ballman registered more tackles (4) last season than any of the defensive linemen listed on Washington's current roster. Will it be addition by subtraction for the Dawgs with their DL? Last season, the Huskies' defense held Arizona to 25 yards rushing and sacked Tuitama 3 times for 19 yards. Punting and Kicking and Special Teams: Arizona wins out here. Arizona's Keenyn Crier led the league in punting last season, averaging 43.7 yards per punt. Finishing sixth in the conference, Washington's Jared Ballman averaged 40.9 yards per punt. Likewise, Zona's Jason Bondzio booted 21 of 26 field goal attempts compared to Washington's Ryan Perkins who was 15 out of 20. Most of the Wildcats' special team members return, with Thomas expected to handle the majority of the kickoff returns. Both teams have reliable long snappers returning. The Dawgs lose Anthony Russo who returned punts last season, along with kick returner Louis Rankin. They ranked third and fifth in the league in their respective categories. Table 3. Special Teams categories from 2007
The coaches: The Husky coaches get my vote. We give head coach Tyrone Willingham (77-77-1) the nod over Mike Stoops (17-29) based on his coaching experience. The same goes for veteran coaches Tim Lappano and Ed Donatell, who trump Sonny Dykes and Mark Stoops at the offensive and defensive coordinator roles, respectively. Table 4. How they match up--Summary
Prediction: The Huskies must run the ball effectively to keep Willie Tuitama off the field as much as possible. Against Hawaii last season, the Huskies jumped off to a 21-0 lead, wielding a vicious ground game behind the running of Louis Rankin, Luke Kravitz and Jake Locker. During the three scoring drives the Huskies rushed 18 consecutive times, effectively neutering Colt Brennan. Later in the game, Brennan was unstoppable. Arizona needs to stop UW's running game and produce one of its own. The Wildcats ranked 47th in the nation in rush defense last season and were 114th running the ball. The Huskies ranked 100th in Pass Efficiency Defense (see table below). Due to the Dawgs' tough early schedule, they could be more motivated than the 'Cats, desperately seeking victory. Motivation connotes focus, emotion and asteroid-like collisions. Upsets tend to rule during the fifth and sixth weeks of the college football season. So... Score: Washington 38, Arizona 31 Table 5. 11-stat comparator from the 2007 season In our 11-stat comparator, Washington, for example, has an average national ranking of 69.2, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where TO=Total Offense, TD=Total Defense, RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.
Richard Linde, aka Malamute can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
