You can certainly understand the feelings of Tyrone Willingham’s detractors. He has won just 50% of his games as a college coach and is 11-25 at Washington, with three consecutive losing seasons and no bowl appearances.

His detractors’ agony is exacerbated by Keith Gilbertson’s two-year record before him (7-16). Gilby posted a 1-10 season at UW in 2004 and resigned as head coach before the season was over.

Washington hasn’t appeared in a bowl since 2002 and hasn’t won a bowl game since the 2001 Rose Bowl, when Rick Neuheisel led UW to a 34-24 victory over Purdue.

Jim Mora of the Seattle Seahawks was the coach Willingham's critics wanted as his replacement. If Mora should take the UCLA vacancy, the brush fires started by UW's malcontents could turn into a conflagration. Currently, many of them, at least on the Internet, are threatening to withdraw their financial support from the program. However, it is a small ax they wield vis-à-vis the money needed to refurbish decrepit Husky Stadium in toto. The disgruntled deep pockets are those of concern.  Without enough money for the reconstruction, a move to Qwest Field becomes a no-brainer.

The role of the upper campus and a new Washington paradigm

Many people feel that the Washington administration bungled the Neuheisel firing, which led to a lawsuit settlement with him. In their minds, if Willingham posts another losing season in 2008, another unforgivable mistake will have been made with a football coach, not to say that many of them wanted Neuheisel to stick around after the embarrassing "auction" incident. Saying Neuheisel was fired for lying, though, insults the intelligence of all Husky fans. It was for fear of the NCAA that he was terminated. (See the trial transcripts).

Hence, there is a credibility problem with the UW honchos that started with the Neuheisel mess in 2003, even though it's a different time and a new cast of characters.

"I believe Tyrone Willingham has the talent, character and drive to reach the level of success we all want for our football program," school president Mark Emmert said in his support of his beleaguered coach yesterday. "Everyone understands we need to become more competitive.."

What kind of success and competitiveness is Emmert talking about? A modest football team that is winning more games than it loses, that is graduating 70% or more of its players, that is acceptable to the upper campus and that is staying healthy with the NCAA, while avoiding the police blotter in downtown Seattle? 

This might all sound good to Emmert should he weigh the Huskies' somewhat murky past with Willingham's firing. That past involves the slush-fund scandal and player revolt of the fifties, the black boycott of the sixties, and the loans and jobs program of the nineties. Add those “peccadilloes” to Neuheisel’s minor bylaw infractions and to the imbroglio involving Dr. “Feelgood," as well as the NCAA violations accrued by the men’s basketball program. This presents a disquieting picture for the university president and upper campus to ponder. UW is still on the NCAA virtual watch list, though it's no longer formally on probation.

The murky past tells the present that UW borrows trouble when its athletic programs get too big for their britches. We needn't remind you of Hurrying Hugh's "mysterious monthly check," Cassill's castle, Torchy's dreams, Billy Joe's loans, booster violations and Rick's beginning wages, do we?   

Keeping the football program clean is of paramount importance. The reserved Willingham is simon-pure, almost to a fault.

Reserved people communicate through a few well-chosen words and eye contact. Try it sometime. :)

Can Willingham win in 2008?

But can he win on the football field in 2008? AD Todd Turner won't commit to the prospect of firing Willingham if he should have another losing season in 2008. The upshot of the meetings among UW bigwigs in the past few days says he will go sans a winning season.

Washington stayed relatively healthy this season, suffering no key injuries, a fact that helped the Huskies stay competitive in each of its games. They might not be so lucky next season. 

Add to that the paradox involving the offense and defense.

The improving offensive numbers from this season project a winning season in 2K8. A weaker Pac-10 will help Tyrone, although he faces tough out-of-conference games with BYU, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. The defensive numbers from last season, some of which are the worst in school history, say he won't post a winning season in 2008.

Firing defensive coordinator Kent Baer will mollify some of Willingham’s detractors but won’t lead to anymore wins next season in of itself. 

A good defense starts with a front four that has an opposing quarterback lying on his back worrying about how to rearrange his face for a date he has with his girlfriend that night. An aggressive front line frees up the linebackers for pass coverage.

Washington loses three of its front four from last season, and its incoming recruiting class, as of now, is somewhat bereft of defensive players. The last several recruiting classes are nothing to crow about in this regard.

Who in his right mind would want to coach the UW defense next year?

Probably, some young whippersnapper seeking an upgraded coaching opportunity. But certainly he won’t be a guy like DeWayne Walker, with pro experience. Walker, who is UCLA’s defensive-coordinator, is also a candidate for the UCLA head coaching job. Walker turned the UCLA defense around on a dime two years ago, and his defense yielded an upset win over USC last season.

What lies ahead in 2008?

Actually, more of the same.

A soft whisper from Montlake tells me we will all be back here next year, same time and same IP addresses, feuding among ourselves, griping about another losing season, with some people wanting Willingham’s hide and others wanting him to stay. The new defensive coordinator, if that should happen, will be embattled as well.

The scapegoating of assistant coaches and starting quarterbacks is de rigueur in football – for changes in personnel offer renewed hope, no matter how false it may be.

This is not to say that Jim Mora would do a better job than Willingham at coaching the Huskies next season. My website is solidly behind Willingham, as it has been all season long. Mora would have been a long shot to resuscitate the moribund program. Tyrone’s continuance as head coach is the best bet we Husky fans have.

To bolster our collective spirit, we need to think about an improving offense, improved recruiting, continuity in coaching, and a football program that fits the new Washington sports paradigm -- whatever that may be. On the other hand, Dr. Emmert will have the last say, though, about Willingham's future with the Huskies, as he did yesterday.

The football program is just turning the corner. Why run if off the road with an inexperienced driver?

In December of next year, the new paradigm for Washington's sports program will become crystal clear to all. That much we know. Right now the current betting says the new model for Washington sports is, "Stay out of trouble."

And Tyrone is the man who will do just that.