Fire Willingham dot com?

Fire Willingham dot com?
One overlooked stat offers a ray of hope
Richard Linde, 29 October 2007

Last week Washington (2-6, 0-5 Pac-10) lost a game to Arizona it could have easily won. Head coach Tyrone Willingham is in his third season at Washington, signing a contract for 5 years in December 2004. Have he and his assistant coaches made any progress with the team during that time?

Answer: no progress is being made at all if you accept the notion our benchmarks are definitive. In fact, football fortunes at UW continue to decline, based on numbers from last season compared with numbers from the eight games played in the current season.

There is room for optimism, however. Even though we are giving Willingham a D+ for his coaching effort at Washington, one significant stat offers a ray of hope, and is the reason he should finish out his 5 years at Washington.

Our benchmarks for comparison involve (1) games won in the conference; (2) comparative statistics for both years and (3) the relative recruiting rankings for both years.

Conference Wins: Grade F (worse)

After 8 games played last season, UW (4-4) had won 2 of 5 conference games. This season UW (2-6) is 0-5 in the conference.

Recruiting rankings: Grade C (no improvement)

This season, the current recruiting class is ranked 30th in the nation by scout.com, with an average star rating of 3.0. Last season, the Huskies finished the recruiting battles with a number 29-rank and an average star rating of 2.81. Bringing in a couple of key local players could give the Huskies a significant improvement in this area of measure.

Statistics: Grade C (no improvement)

Ten stats are up and 10 stats are down. Three offensive stats have significantly improved, and 3 defensive stats have significantly worsened. Credit should be given to quarterback Jake Locker for the improved offensive stats. [*]

Final Grade: D+

Analysis: This is an easy one. The coaches failed to replace the overall quality of the 26 seniors who graduated last season, most of them out of the 2002/2003 recruiting classes. The last 3 recruiting classes signed by Willingham have been mediocre. We know former coach Keith Gilbertson bears partial responsibility for the 2005 class, but in the final analysis, the buck stops with Willingham.

Recommendation:

If the season continues as it has, we recommend that coach Willingham be given the 2 years remaining on his contract. His record at Washington (9-22, 4-18 Pac-10) does not merit a contract extension as of now.

Willingham should be given a chance to build a team around QB Jake Locker, since three significant offensive stats have improved because of Locker. In this regard, the Huskies are scoring one more touchdown per game than they did last season, this along with the year before (2005), and they are scoring two more touchdowns than they posted on average per game in the 2004 season.

An inability to score points has haunted the Huskies the past 3 years, and is one of our pet peeves.

Certainly, securing the services of one or more offensive players of the four-or-five-star variety would add another 7 points to the scoring offense. Averaging 35 points per game -- 28.8 now -- would put the Huskies in the upper tier of the Pac-10, assuming their defense was credible. Offensive scoring -- an oxymoron -- offers our ray of hope.

Fans, that is huge, and we are excited. Bring in the playmakers, Tyrone. And buttress the defense.

Maintaining continuity in the coaching staff is the other consideration for keeping Willingham and his entire staff on board.

Buying him out of his current contract could prove expensive.

Willingham's contract expires on December 11, 2009. As we understand the particulars of his contract, if Willingham should be fired without cause before January 2, 2008, the UW will owe him $1.5 million for the remaining years left on his contract. For example, firing him today would cost the UW approximately $3.1 million. Firing him after January 2, 2008 would cost the UW approximately $1.9 million since his buyout would then be $1 million for each year left on his contract.

We recommend that none of the assistant coach's contracts be terminated, including that of embattled defensive coordinator Kent Baer. He must be giving a sigh of relief as he reads this. Baer has been with Willingham 13 years, and it's a stretch of the imagination to believe he has become incompetent overnight.

Comparative Statistics and Jake Locker's improvement in Pass Efficiency:

Of the 20 statistics shown below, Washington has improved in 10 of them over last season, 6 on offense, 3 on special teams and 1 on turnover margin. Six defensive numbers have worsened. The numbers for Total Defense, Rushing Defense and Scoring Defense have soured markedly. Total Offense, Rushing Offense and Scoring Offense have improved significantly. Time of Possession, which has dropped by 2:09, should be of concern this season.

Columns 2 and 3 indicate the 2006 numbers, while the last 2 columns apply to the 2007 numbers. Highlighted rows in black indicate improvement over last year's numbers. Columns 3 and 5 represent UW's rank in the PAC-10. The highlighted red numbers represent a conflagration that needs immediate attention.

Offensive scoring offers a ray of hope for the Willingham tenure.