Some thanks and some stats

Some thanks and some stats
Malamute, 24 October 2007

With Turkey season appropriately on the horizon, it’s not too early to give thanks.

Thanks, Phil Knight, for showing AD Todd Turner how to run a big business.

Thanks, Mike Bellotti, for showing Coach Ty Willingham how to run the spread option offense.

Thanks, offense, for a good game. However, the defense need not thank you for your five three and outs and one four and out, each coming after an Oregon score. On these six anemic drives, you took an average of 1:04 off the clock, averaging 3.9 yards per drive, this at a time you needed to match the Oregon score and give your defense time to rest.

Thanks, coaches Tormey and Hart, for UW continues to rank third in the conference in Pass Defense. ;-)

Thanks, Pete Carroll, our Huskies rank first in the conference in Opponent Penalties. ;-)

Thanks, media, for giving us E.J. Savannah’s enduring quote, "Half the time, I didn't know where the ball was."

Thanks, Dennis Dixon, for not running the statue-of-liberty play that so embarrassed Michigan.

Thanks, coaches, for teaching the troops how to handle the no-huddle offense. Oregon ran 92 offensive plays to UW's 60. All in all, we fans got to witness 152 offensive plays, most of them offensive. ;-)

Thanks, school Prez, for engendering this question. If Oregon had needed an athletic director and football coach back in 2004, would mega-donor Phil Knight have approved of the hiring of Todd Turner and Tyrone Willingham, respectively? Of course not, for both of them were badly in need of a retread after their wearing moments at Vanderbilt and Notre Dame. Washington's fear of the NCAA and media were the main reasons for their hiring, both men bearing cherubic, clerical credentials.

Thanks, Husky Stadium, for all of Oregon’s motion penalties. ;-)

Thanks, Coach Ty, for not fastidiously tucking Jake’s jersey in. ;-)

Thanks, Tim Lappano, for your pet power-running formations. ;-)

Thanks, Ryan Perkins, for your 42-yard field goal.

Thanks, Jared Ballman, for your 72-yard punt.

Thanks, Anthony Russo, for your 83-yard TD catch and run.

Thanks, Linus Chou, for teaching us what being a Husky is all about.

Thanks, fifth-year seniors, you know what we mean.

Thanks, schedule, for your easier part is now upon us.

Commentary:

The following commentary relates to the media's recent interview with Huskies' Offensive Coordinator Tim Lappano; see Molly's blog:

Personally, I think Tim is better off in the booth in the sky. He doesn’t need Willingham (et al) looking over his shoulder. Geez, having all that mind power on the ground, so ready to become entangled in the complex web they might weave.

As far as Jake Locker is concerned, he doesn’t need any in-your-face (literally) confrontations with his tutor in the heat of a game. Separation by phone is a good thing. Jake can ignore Lappano for one thing and use his feel of the game to veto his input. Jake is sneaky smart and has good instincts. With two assistant coaches who were former head coaches on it, this team runs the threat of being over-coached. I hope they are keeping things simple.

“That's the whole idea -- to get him (Locker) to think like I do,” says Lappano.

Comment: These coaches are all over Jake like the owners of a brand new Porsche. Let him be his own man, and stop polishing him so much. Give him some air. We haven’t had anybody come into the program with his promise since Don Heinrich and Hugh McElhenny. Locker is both of them rolled up into one. Indeed, Jake is the Huskies’ savior. His presence is not just hope; his promise is blossoming right now.

"We have our offense on a (wrist) band, and if I want to do something else, I can just run what I want even if it's not on the band," Lappano said of the play-calling advantage from the field.

Comment: Get a bigger wrist/forearm band.

“When you're up in that glass box, you can't really gauge what's going on with the conditions, the wind especially, or how wet the ball is, how wet the field is ... and you don't feel the energy in the game and I hate that," Lappano says.

Comment: Get a weather station and, also, a Rictor Scale to measure energy from the field.

Seriously, I hope that TL makes good on his no-huddle promise by next season and finds a way to open running lanes out of the shot-gun spread as Oregon did, with better zone blocking than now – and junks his pet power-running formations that aren’t fooling anybody. IF TL had worked harder on the spread with Isaiah, Carl and Jake last year, he might be further ahead with it now, maybe running no-huddle.

Table 2. 11-stat comparator.

In our 11-stat comparator, Washington has an average national ranking of 73.6, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where TO=Total Offense, TD=Total Defense, RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.

Arizona, the Huskies next opponent, has an average national ranking of 65, compared to the Dawgs' 73.6. Looking at the stats, Arizona's meek rushing number, 112, is offset by the Huskies meeker rushing-defense number, 118. That's a push. The Wildcats' PEO, 61, trumps the Huskies', 105. Both PEDs are about the same. Total Offense and Total Defense clearly favor Arizona. Winning three key categories (TO, TD, PEO) gives Arizona the nod, say 27-24 on a neutral playing field. However, give the Dawgs' seven points for their home-field advantage. Make that 31-27, Huskies.

Except for Stanford and Arizona, our comparator correlates nicely with the won/lost records of the teams (see below). [*]

T	TO	TD	RO	RD	PEO	PED	SO	SD	SF	SA	TM	AVG
ASU	27	14	38	13	8	7	12	4	21	113	22	25.4
UO	2	67	3	50	4	38	2	39	21	45	28	27.2
USC	31	3	20	4	53	9	29	3	38	31	89	28.2
UCB	39	60	37	40	44	61	26	61	52	19	14	41.2
UCLA	56	26	33	8	86	46	54	46	21	87	89	50.2
OSU	60	22	62	3	111	70	58	56	3	38	100	53
UA	76	43	112	31	61	50	70	62	49	80	81	65
WSU	47	100	100	69	42	117	78	107	30	71	49	73.6
UW	95	107	54	118	105	51	62	92	52	45	70	77.4
SU	91	102	94	70	91	108	82	90	15	114	44	81.9

[*] ASU (7-0); UO (6-1); USC (6-1); UCB (5-2); UCLA (5-2); OSU (4-3); SU (3-4); UA (2-6); WSU (2-5); UW (2-5).