Virtual equals real this FridayRichard Linde, 27 August 2007
This
next Friday night the virtual Washington Huskies we’ve been hearing
and reading about turn into a real football team when they go up
against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Hopefully, some questions will
be answered.
The Pac-10 media brigade --
a gaggle of beat writers, columnists and self-anointed experts --
say the Huskies will finish no better than ninth in the conference.
A lot of people are predicting a three-or-four win season for the Dawgs. They point to one of the toughest schedules in the country
and an improved Pac-10 conference, where underneath it all are
statistics buried from last season, which fit inside a three-year
pattern of ineptness, wherein the Huskies have posted 8 wins and 26
loses.
Considering the pattern of statistics over the last three
years and the schedule, there appears to be little hope for the
Huskies in bettering the various forecasts (see Table 1 below)
If that weren’t enough,
questions concerning the offensive line, the defensive backfield,
the tight ends and the kicking game are still pending.
The other salient question
concerns redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker. Will he live up
to his advanced billing as the Huskies’ savior?
For a quarterback, Locker is
an impressive physical specimen (6-foot-3, 223, 4.6), looking more
like a linebacker than a quarterback. Going into this season, he is
the most hyped-up player to come into the program since Hugh
McElhenny in 1949. As a Husky and later as a pro, Hurrying Hugh
lived up to his advanced billing. But will Montlake Jake live up to
his?
I’ve seen Locker in action
twice now, at the spring game and at the practice that took place
last Tuesday evening. Each time I’ve seen Locker, backup quarterback
Carl Bonnell, who is a fifth year senior, has looked the better of
the two, appearing more comfortable with the offense and more
accurate with his passes.
For example, in
an eleven-on-eleven drill last Tuesday evening, Locker had three balls
tipped by the defensive front seven, one for an interception. He
threw one long pass that traveled about 50 yards in the air, which
looked more like a punt than a pass, the ball refusing to turn
over. He’s fast – but doesn’t appear as fast as last year’s
quarterback Isaiah Stanback.
Other than the spring game
and a couple of scrimmages, the beat writers haven’t seen much of
him either. They are restricted to viewing the first 25 minutes
of practice, when most of the time the players are warming up with
calisthenics. Then they ask the coaches questions after practice is
over and report on the practice the next day.
All we really know about
Locker is what the coaches and players are saying about him. They
say he is one of the fastest players on the team and a gifted
athlete; they say he is a natural leader that commands the respect
of the older players. They say he is a hard worker whose
conditioning is a role model for other players. They say he embraces the
values that Coach Willingham tries to instill in his players, these
values involving good character, exemplary citizenship and hard work on the field and
in the classroom.
And then there is Dennis
Erickson, coach of Arizona State, who says Locker is as a good a quarterback
coming out of high school as he has ever seen.
Bob Condotta of the Seattle
Times quotes Erickson as saying,
"You get a guy
(Locker) of his talent, that turns programs around pretty damn
fast…The biggest thing they ever did was get him. He can turn that
program around."
PrepStar said
that Locker, coming out of high school, was the fifth best
quarterback in the nation and the best quarterback in the west.
All of this is a
lot of hype involving a player who hasn’t played in an official game
for the Huskies.
Is all the
hoopla involving Locker being exaggerated? Is he just an above
average quarterback burdened by an undue amount of notoriety and publicity?
Is he a poster boy for a marketing ploy?
College football
is a big-money enterprise nowadays that, in the main, financially
supports the athletic department and its many endeavors.
Maybe all the
fanfare involving Locker, aided by the lack of information coming
from closed
practices, is a way of selling more tickets and creating TV
exposure. Money is a driving force in NCAA football, especially at
the Division I-A level.
Creating a
mystery man of Hugh McElhenny proportions may be a way of increasing the
fans’ interest in a football program appearing moribund and needing
an infusion of money for a stadium renovation.
I'd feel better about Locker if he came
out of Long Beach Poly High rather than Ferndale high school, which
is near the Canadian border. It's not clear that Ferndale is a
five-star nebula like Poly.
Certainly the media have a financial
interest in keeping the virtual Locker legend alive for as long as
they can. Add them to the marketing strategy.
But then again
Locker's hype may be mostly sincere and genuine, with raising money being a
secondary issue.
Will we know more about Locker
after Friday night when virtual turns to real?
Ironically, if the Huskies can run the
ball effectively against Syracuse, we may not know much more about
Locker’s potential after the game than we do right now. Ideally, the
inexperienced Locker, being kept under wraps, just hands the ball
off to his running backs and keeps the defense honest with play
action passes.
However, if Washington’s
offense sputters and UW falls behind in the game, look for offensive
coordinator Tim Lappano to give the green light to Locker, much like
he did to Isaiah Stanback in last year’s UCLA game. Stanback saved
the day for Washington, after it fell behind in the first half, by
taking charge and winning the game with
his running and passing in the second half.
From what knowledgeable
people are saying, Locker is ideally suited for running a spread
option attack, being a stronger and faster version of Marques
Tuiasosopo, who led the option-oriented Huskies to a win in the 2001
Rose Bowl against Purdue.
Indeed, if Jake is an updated,
enhanced version of Tui, look for him and the spread option to turn the UW football program around --
reversing its many shortcomings -- as Dennis Erickson predicts.
Having McElhenny around
eased the path for AD Harvey Cassill and his expansion of Husky Stadium in 1950.
Locker could be the key to opening the deep pockets needed for the
stadium's future expansion, remodeling and repairs.
Table 1. EGAD. The following
statistics from the last three seasons represent Washington's rank
among the 119 teams that comprise NCAA Division I-A football. Of the
14 statistics, statistics involving turnover margin and pass defense
are the most abominable from 2006. Note that Washington finished seventeenth
in the nation -- first in the conference -- in pass defense in its
2004 season when it finished 1-10. Three quarters of its defensive
backfield then (CB Sam Cunningham, CB Derrick Johnson, SS C.J. Wallace
and FS Dashon Goldson) are in the professional ranks now.
| Statistic |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
AVG. |
| Rushing
Offense |
69 |
72 |
90 |
77 |
| Passing
Offense |
66 |
58 |
77 |
67 |
| Total Offense |
74 |
69 |
103 |
82 |
| Scoring
Offense |
76 |
90 |
117 |
94 |
| Rushing
Defense |
66 |
49 |
83 |
66 |
| Pass
Efficiency Defense |
74 |
113 |
61 |
83 |
| Total Defense |
95 |
94 |
55 |
81 |
| Scoring
Defense |
85 |
89 |
83 |
86 |
| Net Punting |
76 |
63 |
46 |
62 |
| Punt Returns |
97 |
101 |
111 |
103 |
| Kickoff
Returns |
77 |
60 |
87 |
75 |
| Turnover
Margin |
104 |
77 |
116 |
99 |
| Pass Defense |
102 |
106 |
17 |
75 |
| Passing
Efficiency |
95 |
66 |
117 |
93 |