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Mal's picks in the Pac 1 August 2006
My prediction for the 2006 Pac-10 race differs somewhat from the media's, and is certainly less credible; however, saying you’re a member of the media -- which I’m not -- is like saying you’re a lawyer in a room full of divorcees. My non-lawyerly predictions follow. 1. Southern California (12-1, 7-1) – Returning starters: 4 offense; 6 defense, 1 specialist They said Pete Carroll would never be successful at Troy because he was a players coach. Yet, Carroll (54-10) is entering his sixth season with the Trojans. Two national championships and four BCS bowl appearances can have a salutary effect on a coach’s future, even if he’s “soft” on his players. Although the Trojans lose 11 players to the pros, including two Heisman Trophy winners, it should be remembered that they have an average recruiting ranking of number four in the nation (3 number one classes) over the past five years – this according to data on scout.com. Over that period, they have recruited a combination of 73 five-star and four-star student-athletes, which means that when key starters go down during the season, they can be replaced with freshmen and sophomores without losing a beat. The same goes for early defections to the pros. So, the cupboard’s hardly bare at Troy. However, I am not convinced that QB John David Booty is an able replacement for Matt Leinart, who is headed to the Arizona Cardinals. Booty is recovering from recent back surgery and, in the past, his throwing accuracy has been questionable, although his appearances have been in a backup role. If Booty can’t fill Leinart’s shoes, then Mark Sanchez can try them on. Chauncey Washington has his academic problems resolved, switching from a math/computer science major to sociology, and is ready to assume the tailback position vacated by Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Washington has clocked a 4.39 forty and weighs slightly less than 220 pounds. As always with the Trojans, the offensive line and defensive front four should be stoutly manned, with nothing really cobbled together – this, considering the loss of OT Winston Justice and OG Taitusi Lutui on the OL, for example. Center Ryan Kalil, a senior out of Corona, has started 26 consecutive games over the last two seasons. Kalil ran a 4.69 in the 40 last spring, can bench press 485 pounds, and is on everyone's pre-season watch list. The Trojans are searching for a disruptive defensive tackle -- a "War Daddy" -- to play opposite DT Sedrick Ellis. Former TE Chris Barrett and Fili Moala are vying for the spot. A couple of Trojan websites are optimistic about the linebacker corps, one of them saying they’re the best in the nation. Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith give the Trojans two incredible receivers, who should make the passing game easier for Booty and/or Sanchez. Smith came to the Trojans the year (2003) that Rick Neuheisel cleaned up on wide receivers at Washington, and I wondered, at the time, why he didn’t get him. Carroll calls speedy, freshman wide receiver Travon Patterson "probably the most spectacular of the newcomers." In a recent practice, Booty threw to 6-foot-3 Vidal Hazelton, the nation's top prep receiver a year ago, and he made several big grabs. Hazelton needs an OK from the NCAA. 2. California (8-4, 4-4); Returning starters: 8 offense, 8 defense, 3 specialists Head Coach Jeff Tedford (33-17) enters his fifth season at Cal. Before Tedford’s arrival in December 2001, the Bears had won just 13 games over a four-year period. During his tenure with the Bears, he has led them to three-straight bowl games. The Bears will be quarterbacked by senior Joe Ayoob, who finished eighth in the conference in pass efficiency last year, posting a rating of 114.1. He should improve on that rating if his solid spring practice is an indication, but he will be pushed by QB Nate Longshore who started for Cal last season and broke his leg in the first game. The number 3 quarterback Steve Levy will be allowed to practice with the team but is suspended for the opener. He pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor for a bar fight in June. Mike Dunbar from Northwestern will assume the role of offensive coordinator, and will augment a powerful running game with the spread offense. Running backs Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett could have made Dunbar’s task an easier one if it were not for the fact that three starters from the offensive line have graduated to the NFL. Lynch ran for 1246 yards last season, averaging 124.6 yards per game. Defensively, the Bears finished second in the conference in 2005, and look to return a strong unit. 3. Arizona State (7-5, 4-4); Returning starters: 10 offense, 5 defense, 2 specialists “He loves me, he loves me not,” both of ASU’s highly regarded quarterbacks might be saying, in reference to head Coach Dirk Koetter (59-38), who enters his fifth year with the Sun Devils. Koetter, without a doubt, has the two best quarterbacks in the country in Sam Keller and Rudy Carpenter. After Keller went down with a thumb injury midway through last season, Carpenter came on to pass for 2,273 yards, 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Carpenter’s 175.0 pass efficiency rating was the best in the nation. Keller, a senior, will most likely get the starting nod over the redshirt sophomore Carpenter. Completing 58% of his passes last season, Keller accounted for 2,165 yards through the air. Keller and company need to post a lot of points on the board, unless the ASU defense can come to the fore. The defense from last season finished last in the conference in Total Defense, giving up 469 yards per game. The talented WR Rudy Burgess was switched to cornerback during the spring, while some transfers, notably Michael Marquardt and Martin Tevaseu, are expected to bolster the defensive line. A couple of standout tailbacks, Shaun DeWitty and Keegan Herring, are expected to battle for the starting nod. The Devils need to replace WR Derek Hagan, who finished third in the conference in both catches and yards per game. If the cornerback situation holds steady, look for Burgess to fill the void at wide receiver. 4. Oregon (10-2, 7-1); Returning starters: 7 offense, 6 defense, 2 specialists The Ducks return head Coach Mike Bellotti (90-42), who is the dean of Pac-10 coaches, having coached at Oregon since 1995. In his eleven years with the Ducks, he has taken them to nine bowl games. During his tenure, some innovation, imagination, and upgraded facilities have contributed to the Ducks’ good fortunes. And, of course, there is always sugar daddy Phil Knight willing to lend a helping hand when the going gets tough. A year ago, the Ducks fielded the best defensive team in the conference. Replacing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who has moved on to the pros, being drafted by Baltimore as a twelfth pick in the first round, will be key. However, the Ducks have a nucleus of returnees that should provide an able defense. Walk-on CB Terrell Ward was impressive in the spring, as was DE Nick Reed. Offensively, the Ducks return all five starters on the offensive line. During the spring game, pile-driving running back Jonathan Stewart (5-foot-10, 235 pounds) averaged 8.2 yards on 10 carries. The brutish, swift Stewart benches 4 bills and runs a 4.35 forty, according to an Oregon website. Stewart and RB Jeremiah Johnson could give the Ducks and the conference a new “thunder and lightning,” according to the same site. The former dynamic duo, USC’s Reggie Bush and LenDale White, are headed to the pros. Dennis Dixon and Brady Leaf are likely to share the quarterback spot, since no clear winner emerged from the spring practices. Four members have left the team because they lacked playing time. 5. Washington (2-9, 1-7), Returning starters: 6 offense , 8 defense, 1 specialist This will be a make or break year for head Coach Tyrone Willingham (67-60-1), who must rely on some talent from the Huskies’ junior and senior classes to have a six-win season and gain respectability. Six wins would satisfy most fans’ expectations and bring in a strong recruiting class. The Dawgs need to win two of their first three games -- games against San Jose State, Oklahoma and Fresno State -- for that to happen. Led by senior quarterback Isaiah Stanback, the Huskies have the cast to support him and finish in the top five of the Pac-10. Stanback has clocked a 10.46 one hundred meters, can throw the ball 70 yards and bench press over 300 pounds. Tons of athleticism and a willingness to learn the intricacies of UW’s spread-coast offense make him one of the marquee quarterbacks in the Pac-10. But there are some depth problems at UW that must be resolved before Stanback can show his football expertise; otherwise, he’ll be mimicking Harry Houdini’s escape acts, and UW will get punched in the stomach like Harry. With 42 starts among them last season, five of eight mainstays from the OL are gone, three to the NFL. The Huskies will rely heavily, pun intended, on OL returnees Stanley Daniels and Clay Walker. Between them, Daniels (7 games) and Walker (4 games) started all eleven games at left guard last season. Look for Chad Macklin (2 starts) to start at right tackle, while Ben Ossai will most likely lock down the left tackle slot in lieu of Nathan Flowers – my pick to start -- who has been declared academically ineligible. Projected to start at center, junior Juan Garcia hopes to leave behind what has been heretofore an injury-plagued career. Depth with the offensive line could be an issue here. Likewise, depth at running back could be a concern with the loss of redshirt freshman J. R. Hasty, who is academically ineligible. Fortunately, former running back Shelton Sampson has rejoined the team. Sampson fumbled the ball at the end of a long run in the Army All-Star game a few years back and seemingly has had trouble holding onto the pigskin since. The loss of punter/kicker Ryan Perkins for the season, due to a knee injury suffered in the spring game, could haunt the Huskies, as kicker Michael Braunstein, a redshirt junior, is still an unknown commodity. Punter Sean Douglas is one of the best at his role in the conference. Defensively, the Huskies must improve their pass rush, their redzone defense, and their defensive pass-efficiency number, 150.1, which was last in the conference last season and a number coveted by most quarterbacks. Some position moves and incoming J. C. talent will buttress a defense that finished sixth in total defense in the conference. The Huskies also lose WR Chancellor Young to academics – count them, four altogether: Young, Flowers, Hasty and WR Charles Smith. A speedster, Young could have given the Dawgs a sorely needed playmaker. To reside in the upper echelon of the Pac-10, Washington must score more points than it did last year, when it averaged 22 points per game. Last season’s conference elite averaged 37 points per game. It seems unlikely that Willingham will need sunglasses to ward off the glare from flashing LED’s on the Huskies’ side of the scoreboard, but, then again, he may want to go incognito before, after and during the games, especially at the fifth quarter following a Husky home game. Stanback, a host of excellent receivers, and an improved defense will be Washington’s strength. A six-win season rests mostly on a jury-rigged offensive line and my assumption there’s more talent at UW than people think. On a contradictory note, the fact that UW has the highest student-athlete graduation rate of any public university on the west coast makes one wonder whether the Huskies are focusing their recruiting classes too much on “student” rather than on “athlete.” 6. UCLA (10-2, 6-2); Returning starters: 5 offense, 7 defense, 2 specialists Even with his new five-year contract -- $850,000 per annum – head Coach Karl Dorrell (22-15) still won’t watch Clint Eastwood’s movie “Million Dollar Baby,” though incentives could add $505,000 per year. He’s one of the few coaches in the Pac-10 who doesn’t own the DVD, with its politically correct ending. Without the winning trifecta of quarterback Drew Olson, TE Marcedes Lewis and TB Maurice Drew, the possibility of the Bruins’ offense carrying its defense again seems remote. UCLA finished ninth in the conference in Total Defense last year, giving up an average of 34.2 points per game. Newly hired defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, formerly of the Washington Redskins, will attempt to complement Dorrell’s West Coast Offense with an improved defense. Ben Olson, no relationship to Drew Olson, is expected to be behind the pivot man to start the season. A talented receiving corps will greet offensive coordinator Jim Svoboda, who replaces Tom Cable, who left the Bruins for the NFL. Last season, Svoboda coached the quarterbacks at UCLA. 7. Arizona (3-8, 2-6); Returning starters: 7 offense, 9 defense, 3 specialists Mike Stoops (6-16) enters his third year as head coach of the Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats have upgraded their talent level by posting two consecutive top 20 recruiting classes (in the 2005 and 2006 classes), and could be a dark horse in the Pac-10. However, Stoops must figure out a way to add more points on the scoreboards in the high octane Pac-10, where scoreboards with flashing LED’s are the norm. Last season the ‘Cats averaged 22.9 points per game, an unacceptable number when you consider that it was inflated by the 53 points they scored in a win over UCLA, which was ranked seventh in the nation at that time. Last season, Arizona finished next to last in the conference in Total Offense. Cutting down on turnovers (28 last season) is a must. Sophomore quarterback Willie Tuitama could have a strong season providing he has a running game. Tuitama made “tremendous strides” during the spring, according to Stoops. On defense, the ‘Cats finished fifth in the conference. Strong safety Michael Johnson is also highly touted by Stoops, while Atoine Cason may be one of the best cornerbacks in the nation. On a sour note, Arizona became the first BCS team to lose scholarships (3 of them) due to the Academic Progress Report, enforced by the NCAA. 8. Oregon State (5-6, 3-5); Returning starters: 8 offense, 7 defense, 1 specialist Mike Riley has coached Oregon State on and off since 1997. He is beginning his fourth consecutive year at OSU, with an overall record with the Beavers of 28-30, posted over five seasons Riley welcomes back his entire offensive line from a year ago. This to go along with RB Yvenson Bernard will give the Beavers some punch on offense. Bernard rushed for 1321 yards last season and caught 37 passes for 316 yards. Last season, the Beavers finished first in the conference in Time of Possession; however, they finished last in redzone offense, meaning they moved the ball effectively in between the twenties, but lacked a killer instinct. At quarterback, senior Matt Moore gives Riley a veteran signal caller, albeit a shaky one. Moore needs to work on his throwing accuracy, having thrown 19 interceptions against 11 touchdown passes last season; his pass efficiency rating of 123.1 was ninth best in the conference. If Moore falters at the helm, quarterbacks Ryan Gunderson and Sean Canfield are ready to take over his job. The redshirt freshman Canfield had an outstanding spring. Defensively, the Beavers must improve on their redzone defense (ninth in the conference last season), pass defense (last), and scoring defense (ninth). In overall defense, however, they finished fourth in the Pac-10. Led by strong safety Sabby Piscitelli, who has been named to the Bronko Negurski watch list, the Beavers return a not-too-shabby defensive backfield. Sophomore Keenan Lewis gives the Beavers a lock-down corner. Overall, the Beavers have a questionable receiving corps and lack a proven defensive front four. 9. Stanford (5-6, 4-4); Returning starters: 10 offense, 6 defense, 1 specialist Head Coach Walt Harris (68-74) enters his second year with the Tree, another symbol of political correctness. The good news is that quarterback Trent Edwards returns for his senior season. However, he must fight off the injury bug that has plagued him in the past, most recently an injured right shoulder. He was sharp in the spring game, completing 17 of 20 passes for 203 yards and 3 trips to the pay dirt. Stanford’s offense, which finished last in the Pac-10 last season, averaging just 316.2 yards per game, returns its nucleus of running backs and two most capable receivers in Evan Moore and Mark Bradford, two of only three scholarship players who will be at the receiver position. The rangy, hard-to-tackle Moore (6-feet-7, 235 pounds) is intent on driving 5-foot-9 cornerbacks out of business. Stanford’s defense, which finished seventh in the conference last season, returns 6 starters. The loss of some key defensive players needs to be replaced or the Tree could lose most of its foliage by the end of the season. The defense was mostly a sieve in the spring game, allowing the running backs to account for four touchdowns and 214 yards, in addition to Edwards’ passing yards. Punter Jay Ottaveglo is noted for his accuracy in downing the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Tree expects that its 50,000 seat, newly built stadium will be ready for their first home game, on September 16, against Navy. The Tree’s pruned down stadium is a shell of its former self. 10. Washington State (4-7, 7-1); Returning starters: 7 offense, 7 defense, 1 specialist Bill Doba (19-17), one of three soft-spoken coaches in the Pac-10, the others being Tyrone Willingham (“Paint-dry Ty”) and Karl Dorrell (Karl “Dullard”), enters his fourth year as head coach. Coming off a sour season, which was marked by five losses of four points or less in the conference, the quiet Doba (“Still Bill”) figures his actions will speak louder than his words in 2006. That means turning close games into certifiable wins. The Cougars need to improve their defense, lest they have another season marred by moral victories. Last year they allowed 31.5 points and 444.2 yards per game. Five of their front seven starters return, which may be either good or bad. The offense promises a brighter outlook. QB Alex Brink and three most capable receivers (Jason Hill, Michael Bumpus, and Chris Jordan) will give the Cougars a potent aerial attack. Three starters on the offensive line return. They say the taciturn Doba shouted “halleluiah” after six J.C. transfers (three on defense and three on offense) signed with the Cougars in 2006. The Cougars lose RB Jerome Harrison who rushed for 1900 yards in 2005. Also, senior quarterback Josh Swogger transferred to Montana for his final season of eligibility. Four scholarship players have left the team for one reason or another. The Quiet Cup 2005 (where actions speak louder than words): Last season, the Cougars beat Washington by four points in the Apple Cup, which proved to Doba that his actions spoke louder than Willingham’s. However, Dorrell’s actions were the loudest of the three, beating Doba by three points and Willingham by four – those two games being moral victories for the losers. Considering the closeness of the games, none of the three coaches made a loud statement. Richard Linde (a.k.a., Malamute) can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
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In a
poll of media members who cover the Pac-10, the USC Trojans were picked to
repeat as conference champions. USC was followed by (2) California, (3) Oregon,
(4) Arizona State, (5) UCLA, (6) Arizona, (7)
Oregon State, (8) Washington State, (9) Stanford and (10) Washington.