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Are the Huskies rising from the dead? Malamute, 25 November 2005
Since
I'm into
negative stats afflicting moribund programs, I compared last season's U-Dub
numbers with this season's and made a diagnosis. Is the patient still alive? The
UW is slowly stirring in its projected grave with a barely discernable heartbeat. However, the undertaker, Tyrone
Willingham, must bring in a strong recruiting class to fully bring his corpse to life.
To have a successful season in 2006, the Huskies must rebuild their offensive
line, replace some outstanding linebackers and bring in a lock-down cover corner
or two.
Thirty-three of the 44 players on the two-deeps for the Apple Cup will be back
next season, including nine starters on defense and six on offense; Scout.com
ranks the current recruiting class 24th in the country.
Since Willingham is from the old school, emphasis this spring will most likely
be on the running game, as it was last season.
"Our identity on offense will come from our ability to run the football,"
offensive coordinator Tim Lappano said, early into the 2005 spring practices.
"When we throw, we'll get the ball off quickly and throw what should be a
high-percentage pass…I think we need to make a commitment to the run. The
players have to believe in it. The coaching staff has to believe in it. We have
other stuff and we will do some of that other stuff. But we are going to be a
power-run football team first."
To his credit, Lappano stayed with his plan throughout the season. After the
losses began to mount, it would have been easy to junk his "Spread Coast
Offense," with an emphasis on running, and go with a pure West Coast Offense,
with an emphasis on quick drops and short short passes.
"Russian" to the Red Zone
Head coach Tyrone
Willingham says that Washington won't be successful until it can run and stop
the run when needed. This season's rushing numbers seem to bear that out. The UW
had better rushing numbers than four of its opponents: Idaho (win), UCLA (loss),
Arizona (win) and Arizona State (loss). Against UCLA and Arizona State, one can construct one or more scenarios
in which the Huskies win. In its losses to Cal, USC, Notre Dame, OSU, and WSU,
Washington averaged just 57.2 yards rushing, while allowing 197.6 yards on the ground, being blown out at the line of
scrimmage.
The bottom line is that the Huskies both ran the ball and stopped the run better
than a year ago. Rebuilding the offensive line and replacing DL Manase
Hopoi are critical goals. Four of the five offensive linemen who started in the
Apple Cup will be lost to graduation.
The Huskies gave up fewer plays of 20 yards or more that went for touchdowns
than they did in 2004 (16 versus 18) and were able to make more big plays that
went for touchdowns than a year ago (12 versus 7).
The Huskies incurred less penalty yards than last season, coughed the ball up
less (20 turnovers compared with 42) and improved on offensive pass efficiency.
Is there Life after Death?
In UW's last two games, signs of life after death came from the football Gods who delivered
two of the most bizarre plays UW fans have witnessed over the last 10 years. In
the penultimate game against Arizona, life seemingly began with a Hail Mary pass to
end the first half, a 69-yard pass from Isaiah Stanback to WR Craig Chambers, one that
traveled 70 yards in the air. That pass tied the score and sparked a 38-14
victory. A second heartbeat was detected in the Apple Cup when RB Kenny James completed a 65-yard touchdown pass
-- with interception written all over it --
to Sonny Shackelford, who caught the ball standing among three Washington State defenders, then raced 20
yards for the score. However, the Huskies lost 26-22.
Living vicariously through improving stats
During the season, the UW (2-9, 1-7)
improved in 13 out of 21 statistical categories when compared with data
available at the end of last season's debacle (1-10, 0-8). Seven statistical categories
were worse and one was about the same. Overall, the offensive categories
improved while the defensive categories
sloughed off. (See the table below). Total defense took a
significant dive as did the number for redzone defense
(90.9%). The Dawgs led the conference last year in pass defense; this season,
they ranked seventh in the Pac-10, allowing 275.7 yards per game.
Pass efficiency offense (123.3) improved markedly over
last year's number (78.7) thanks to the continued improvement of Isaiah Stanback
(128.8), who took snaps from center on a regular basis.
Washington's average conference ranking for this year is
7.38, compared with a 7.62 ranking last season. Although the Dawgs improved
on their stats this season, so have many other teams in the conference.
Lux Sit (Let there be light). When all is said and
done, when the numbers have been crunched and spun, the bottom line is that the
Huskies scored more points than they did last year while allowing about the same
number of points.
What Improved (13): rushing offense,
passing offense, rushing defense, passing efficiency offense, total offense,
third-down conversions, penalties, turnover margin,
field goals, punt returns, redzone offense, points scored and kickoff returns.
What went down (7):
time of possession,
passing defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense, punting, kickoff
coverage, and redzone defense.
What was about the same (1): points against In the table below, the 2005 stats are on the left, with
the stats for 2004 on the right; the ranking number (e.g., 9th) relates to the Dawgs'
place in the conference). The bold numbers indicate improvement. The purple
number means the stat is about the same.
1. Ball Control
|
Time of Poss. |
27:47 |
9th |
28:26 |
7th |
2. Blocking and Tackling
|
Rushing Offense |
135.2 |
7th |
120.2 |
6th |
|
Passing Offense |
222.8 |
8th |
190.8 |
9th |
|
Rushing Defense |
143.4 |
5th |
183.6 |
9th |
|
Passing Defense |
275.7 |
7th |
185.8 |
1st |
|
Pass Eff Defense |
150.1 |
10th |
123.8 |
8th |
|
Pass Eff Offense |
123.3 |
7th |
78.7 |
10th |
|
Total Offense |
358.0 |
8th |
311.0 |
9th |
|
Total Defense |
419.1 |
6th |
369.5 |
7th |
|
3rd Down Conv. |
33.6% |
10th |
31.3% |
9th |
3. Mistakes
|
Penalties |
50.5 |
3rd |
56.8 |
6th |
|
Turnover Margin |
-0.27 |
6th |
-1.73 |
10th |
4. Field Position
|
Kickoff Returns |
20.4 |
6th |
18.7 |
8th |
|
Punt Returns |
6.1 |
10th |
5.3 |
10th |
|
Punting net/punt |
33.7 |
7th |
36.5 |
4th |
|
Kickoff cover. * |
36.8 |
9th |
20.8 |
7th |
5. Scoreboard Baby
|
Field Goals |
73.3% |
T4th |
58.8% |
7th |
|
Redzone Offense |
80.0% |
5th |
61.8% |
10th |
|
Redzone Defense |
90.9% |
10th |
73% |
3rd |
|
Points For |
21.5 |
10th |
14 |
10th |
|
Points Against |
30.6 |
8th |
30.4 |
10th |
* The stats for 2005 involves the net average, while the
2004 stats involve the average.
Richard Linde (a.k.a., Malamute) can be reached at
malamute@4malamute.com |