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How AFA and UW match up by position Malamute, 22 August 2005
A side-by-side comparison of the two teams follows. Quarterback Falcons: As a freshman last season, pressed into service because of an injury to Adam Fitch, Shaun Carney brings a year of experience to the quarterback’s role. Carney finished the season with a remarkable passing efficiency rating of 151.2 and will benefit from an offensive line that is all back, intact and could be one of AFA's best ever. Huskies: Internet message boards reflect a palpable sense of urgency as UW fans wait for one of four quarterbacks to fill the starter’s niche. "I don't think there's anyone who has said, 'Coach, I'm your quarterback,' yet," Coach Tyrone Willingham says. Last season, three of Washington’s current quarterbacks sharing the job combined for a pass efficiency rating of 78.68, the worst in Division I-A football. The other scholarship quarterback on this season's roster hasn’t taken a snap in an official college game. Advantage: Air Force Offensive Line: Huskies: Although Washington has considerable depth and experience on the offensive line, last season’s behemoths produced an anemic running attack that averaged just 120.18 yards per game, ranking 90th in the country. Big Joe Toledo, formerly a tight end, must fill the shoes left by departed tackle Khalif Barnes. Falcons: In contrast, AFA ranked fourth in the country in rushing, and returns its entire offensive line, one led by Senior Jon Wilson, an Outland Trophy candidate. Early in the game against Washington, AFA fans expect Wilson to soften the middle, so Carney can option to the outside. Advantage: Air Force Running Back: Falcons: At running back, the Falcons lose Anthony Butler, Darnell Stephens, and Dan Shaffer. Justin Handley and Chad Smith are expected to replace Butler and Stephens, while Jacobe Kendrick will replace Shaffer at fullback. With the most experience of the three, Kendrick averaged 23.0 yards per game last season and has a career average of 5.2 yards per carry. During the spring, the Falcons moved quarterback Adam Fitch (6-0, 190) to running back, adding more depth to that position along with quickness to the outside. Operating out of the Wishbone, Carney ran for 596 yards and scored 6 touchdowns in 2004. Huskies: Washington returns an array of running backs with differing abilities: outside, inside and power runners. At 6-3, 280, Johnie Kirton is the biggest of the running backs, but currently is being tried out at tight end. Rounding out the corps are Kenny James, James Sims, Luke Kravitz, Ty Eriks, Louis Rankin, Shelton Sampson, and Chris Singleton. James rushed for 702 yards in 11 games last season to lead the Huskies. Advantage: Washington Tight End: Falcons: A solid blocker with good hands and speed, Robert McMenomy (6-4, 235, Senior), who caught 5 passes for 81 yards and a touchdown, will start at tight end for the Falcons. Huskies: At the UW, presumed starter Robert Lewis caught 3 passes for 32 yards last season. His backup, Dash Crutchley, recently suffered a broken foot, which leaves Kirton, Jason Benn (moved from the offensive line?), and true freshman Tim Williams in backup roles. Advantage: Air Force Wide Receiver: Falcons: Carney's wide receivers, Alec Messerall and J. P Waller, are both gone. However, the Falcons expect big things from Jason Brown (6-4, 225, Senior), who caught 9 passes last season, averaging 18.2 yards per catch. Huskies: Washington has two solid wide receivers in Craig Chambers and Corey Williams. Chambers caught 19 passes for 419 yards to lead the Huskies last season. Williams returns from injury after colliding with a wall at Notre Dame. The UW expects some nifty catches, along with run after catch in its West Coast offense, from Sonny Shackelford, Quintin Daniels, Anthony Russo, Cody Ellis, and Charles Smith. Advantage: Washington Defensive Front Four: Falcons: NG Russ Mitscherling (6-3, 285, Senior), the Falcon's best defensive Pro prospect, will be asked to plug, what heretofore, has been a porous middle. Last season, Cal and J. J. Arrington posted 342 yards rushing, giving the Air Force a feel for a "Russian" offense. Defensive ends Gilberto Perez (6-3, 275, Junior) and Nelson Mitchell (6-1, 260, Senior) are expected to help Mitscherling shore up the middle of the 3-5-3 defense. Huskies: Manase Hopoi leads a passel of lettermen – 11 of them – that return to the defensive line. Blessed with such talent and depth harkens one back to the good old days at the UW. However, the Dawgs need to prove they can pressure the quarterback from the outside. Last season, Hopoi had 22 tackles for a loss to lead the Pac-10. He ranked fifth in sacks with 9 and accounted for 54 tackles. He returns for his senior year faster than ever, having shed a few pounds. Advantage: Washington Linebacker: Falcons: The Falcons lose most of their depth at linebacker and are counting on Overton Spence (6-2, 240, Senior), who has started a few games, to have a good year. Early this month, the Academy expelled linebacker Marcus Brown for failing to meet unspecified school standards. Favored to start at inside linebacker this season, Brown registered 34 tackles in 11 games last season. Huskies: In recording tackles last season and, perhaps the strength of the 4-3 defense, linebackers Joe Lobendahn, Evan Benjamin, and Scott White ranked 3rd, 4th and 6th in the conference, respectively, combining for 288 stops. Gaining valuable experience last season, all of them appearing in four or more games, Kyle Trew, Tahj Bomar and Dan Howell will back the speedy trio up. Advantage: Washington Cornerback: Falcons: The defensive backfield has some depth but like Washington lacks a true shutdown corner. Carson Bird (5-11, 190, Sophomore) will start at left corner and Chris Sutton (6-0, 180, Junior) on the other side. Sutton, a starter last season, accumulated 65 tackles and an interception Huskies: Losing Derrick Johnson and Sam Cunningham to graduation leaves a big question at cornerback, with Junior Matt Fontaine being the most experienced of the returnees. In the spring, the UW had just three scholarship cornerbacks available and this fall is counting on JC transfer Marion Wood to help fill the void. Quenton Freeman, expected to transfer from Pasadena Community College, failed to qualify. Nevada transfer Chris Handy needs to fulfill the promise of his surname at that position, like in "come in handy." Presumably, Junior Josh Okoebor will have recovered from knee surgery. Roy Lewis, who transferred from San Jose State last September, and Fontaine are the presumptive starters at corner. Bothered by nagging injuries last season, Clarence Simpson, who played in eight games in 2003, is expected to help out at corner. Advantage: Even Safety: Falcons: FS Mark Carlson (6-0, 190, Senior) led the Falcons in tackles last season; he had 1 interception. Bobby Giannini (6-2, 210; Sophomore), with 67 tackles and 1 interception, will help out at one of the safety positions. Huskies: Both starting safeties return: C. J. Wallace at strong safety and Dashon Goldson at free safety. In the Pac-10, they ranked 24th and 27th respectively in registering tackles last season. The coaches liked what they saw in Darin Harris who replaced Goldson during spring football. Goldson sat out the spring because of shoulder surgery. Advantage: Washington Special Teams: As shown by Table 1, both teams need improvement in this category, especially in punt and kickoff returns. The Huskies returned 18 punts for just 96 yards last season — the lowest total in school history, according to Bob Condotta. The Falcons ranked 113th in net punting last season, allowing three touchdown returns. Advantage: Even Summary: Table 1 shows the two teams splitting 14 statistical categories from 2004. Offensively, the Academy was good while Washington was bad and, defensively, Washington was bad while the Cadets were horrid. Forget all of this statistical and positional nonsense, for sometimes the heart is smarter than the brain. My Prediction: Washington 35, Air Force 28 Table 1. Some 2004 statistics for the Air Force and Washington (NR=National Ranking)
Richard Linde (a.k.a., Malamute) can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com |
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After scanning scads of
stats and regurgitating reams of rosters, I’m ready to pick the winner of the
game between the Air Force Academy and Washington, a game to be played at Qwest Field on September 3.