No running game at Columbus?
Singleton' loss is doubling troublesome By: Malamute, 28 August 2003
The
upcoming game between Washington and Ohio State looks like a setup: A setup for
the Ohio State fans and for the moneymakers at the two schools. A large TV
audience and 100,000 fans in attendance ensure that both schools will post a
positive cash flow to start the season.
Why on earth would a school that is coming a controversial
jettisoning of its former football coach want to subject itself to a mismatch—at
least on paper—by playing the defending national champion on its own home turf
to start its season? It’s all about money, and the decision to play the game was
made years ago by the schedule makers who were wearing dollar-colored glasses at
the time.
You don’t see Miami, Florida, Notre Dame or Florida State
lining up for this big-bucks deal at Columbus. You can’t win the national
championship by pulling a Washington. No one is that dumb.
J
The correct formula for winning the national championship
is to play a couple of patsies to start the season, then alternate between
patsies and tough guys, always making sure there are never two tough guys in a
row with which to butt heads. Three toughies in a row ensure that you're toast for
a national championship.
A formula for an unsuccessful season: Try playing the
Trojans at the Coliseum, Arizona State at Tempe and Washington at Seattle all in
a three-week period. There isn’t a college football team in America that
wouldn’t lose at least one of those games, and that’s the reason no prescient
prognosticator ever picks a Pac-10 team to win a national championship.
Here’s how we see the game; after all of this negativity,
we’ll weasel a bit and say it will be closer than people think--because
Washington is a very good football team, the best it has been since the 2000
season when it won the Rose Bowl against Purdue.
The following is based on what I saw of the Buckeyes during
their spring game and on what I saw of the Dawgs at
Olympia.
-
Running the ball: Even almost; both teams will struggle;
a slight edge for Ohio State
-
Stopping the run: Even almost; both teams should excel. A
slight edge for Ohio State
-
Special teams: A huge plus for Ohio State
-
Clock management: Ohio State (Tressel to outfox Gilby)
-
Controlling mid-field (between the thirty-fives): Ohio
State
-
Defense: Even
-
Offense: Washington
-
Home-field advantage: (The Dawgs spot the Buckeyes eight
big virtual points)
-
Mistakes: the old cliché; whoever makes the fewest
critical mistakes will win
In the last two years, the UW has lost some big games on
the road, and has been blown out in several of them. In those games, not being
able to run the ball effectively has contributed to poor field position, putting
quarterback Cody Pickett in untenable situations. Not turning the ball over is
key for the Huskies in this game. If the Dawgs adhere to their prior formula for
losing big games on the road, it will be all over before the fat lady sings.
Obtaining good field position from which to start its
drives is paramount, meaning the Huskies must be able to run the ball
effectively and kick it well; going into the game, both of these facets are big
question marks for the Huskies. The Huskies’ runners struggled for yardage
against the first-team defense at the Olympia training camp. The young punters
and kickers have been consistently inconsistent.
Losing tailback Chris Singleton (photo above) to a broken
foot for 6-8 weeks could unravel the Huskies' running game before it even begins to rock
and roll. The timing couldn't have been worse, coming just three days before the
game.
Singleton's loss is "doubling" troublesome when you think
about what could have been: with fullback Zach Tuiasosopo in the same backfield
with him. Tuisasosopo had a stellar camp at Olympia, looking to be the best
power runner the Dawgs have. He's lost to the Huskies until his felony malicious
mischief charges are resolved on September 25.
Singleton's loss puts added pressure on tailbacks Rich Alexis (he's had shoulder
problems in the past) and Shelton Sampson, who suffered from migraines during
the Olympia training camp. Redshirt freshman Kenny James, who missed most of
spring practice because of a sprained knee, is listed as the number two
tailback.
Ohio State coach Jim Tressel (156-62-2 in 17 years’
coaching) has set high standards for his team. On a per game basis, he would
like for his defense to hold opponents to 13 points or less and for his offense
to score at least 40 points; he wants to run the ball for 200 yards plus and
pass for at least 250 yards.
Fun Corner; some hype for Cody: Think of what the
Caldwell Cowboy from Chicken Dinner Road—that moniker should give those biased
eastern sportswriters pause for thought—could do with a viable running game.
J Pickett’s statistics are truly
amazing—4458 yards passing last year—considering the Dawgs’ anemic running game
in 2002, the worst in school history.
An optimistic prediction: Ohio State 30, Washington 27
Table 1. Statistics from the 2002 Season *
|
Statistic |
UW |
National Rank |
OSU |
National Rank |
|
Scoring Offense |
30.6 |
31 |
29.3 |
41 |
|
Total Offense |
420.7 |
17 |
364.5 |
70 |
|
Rushing Offense |
74.5 |
113 |
191.3 |
31 |
|
Passing Offense |
346.2 |
4 |
173.2 |
92 |
|
Net Punting |
33.7 |
71 |
37.3 |
13 |
|
Kickoff Returns |
18.6 |
95 |
20.2 |
55 |
|
Scoring Defense |
26.3 |
60 |
13.1 |
2 |
|
Total Defense |
357.2 |
51 |
320.9 |
23 |
|
Rushing Defense |
97.7 |
11 |
77.7 |
3 |
|
Pass Eff. Defense |
129.2 |
74 |
111.9 |
32 |
|
Punt Returns |
7.4 |
98 |
8.3 |
84 |
|
Turnover margin |
+0.1 |
57 |
+0.9 |
18 |
* Statistics were obtained from Collegio Football:
www.sophosoft.com
Reference: Ohio State Spring Game
Richard Linde (a.k.a., Malamute) can be reached at
malamute@4malamute.com
|