Pac-10 Preview, Part II
How we rank the teams
By: Malamute, 19 May 2003

 

This is the second article of a two part series, both of which preview the Pac-10 conference teams for 2003. In the first part, we presented a tabularized skinny to quantify a ranking of the teams. This isn't guesswork, you know. In this article, we look at each team individually, presenting their strengths and weaknesses.

 

This could be a down year for the Pac-10 conference, which must replace the likes of quarterbacks Carson Palmer, Jason Gesser, Kyle Boller, Jason Johnson, and Cory Paus (photo above). These guys weren't too shabby. The Cincinnati Bengals selected Palmer as the number one pick in the NFL draft and the Baltimore Ravens took Boller as number 19 in the first round of the draft. Altogether, eight Pac-10 players were drafted in the first round.

 

Last season, the conference posted a 32-15 record against non-conference foes and although it won but two of its post-season bowl games, there are some extenuating circumstances. For one, a strong California team was bowl ineligible; secondly, ASU in its loss to KSU was impressive; and thirdly, WSU's Jason Gesser played in the Rose Bowl with an upper ankle sprain. At the same time, its head coach Mike Price was contemplating a date with Destiny. So, forget those bowl losses and about what the eastern mafia tells you about the conference. Last season, the Pac-10 was the strongest conference in college football.

 

This upcoming season is another matter. Three new head coaches must establish themselves and their systems; they are Mike Riley (OSU), Karl Dorrell (UCLA), and Bill Doba (WSU). At the conclusion of their spring practices, five teams had yet to find a starting quarterback.

 

Conference teams face a strong out-of-conference schedule, which won't help the Pac-10's overall national ranking, unless, of course, its teams post some wins over the likes of Ohio State, Colorado, Auburn, Notre Dame (thrice), Michigan, LSU, Colorado State, Oklahoma, Iowa and Purdue. Most of those games will be on the road, and should the Pac-10 teams lose a majority of the above, the eastern mafia will lambaste the conference in its usual fashion, pointing out that the conference has yet to send a team to the national championship game; ergo, on an annual basis, it's the weakest conference in college football. Same old folderol--but so easily rebutted by a few simple facts.

 

Here's how I rank the teams in the Pac-10 for the 2003 season. Also included is a headline from the school's newspaper.

 

1. Washington. Heisman demonstrators Pickett for Cody

 

The Good:

 

The UW has a proven head coach, a relatively easy Pac-10 road schedule, a Heisman hopeful at quarterback, a significant home-field advantage, sixteen returning starters and a strong incoming class to augment some key-player losses. The UW has arguably the best QB/WR combo in college football: Cody Pickett and Reggie Williams, respectively. Although the defense is thin in spots, it should be improved over last season. Incoming coaches, Dan Cozzetto (offensive line) and Phil Snow (assistant defensive coordinator)  were huge catches for head coach Rick Neuheisel. The Udub does not play title contender ASU and gets USC at home the week after Notre Dame softens them up at the Tarnished Dome.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

The Huskies must double their rushing numbers from last season to 150-yards per game or more. Otherwise, if they can't run the ball effectively, they'll finish somewhere in the middle of the race. QB Cody Pickett needs to run the ball more inside the redzone and, at times, option it off to TB Rich Alexis. The UW needs some help at wide receiver and with its kicking game. A long snapper has yet to step to the fore. A number of key injuries that kept players out of spring practice must heal. Apparently, the Huskies don't have a whole lot of linemen who will play on Sundays, although that pejorative statement is subject to negotiation come fall. Rick Neuheisel must establish some off-field discipline, lest he lose his starting backfield for a couple of games. TB Rich Alexis and FB Zach Tuiasosopo could miss part or all of the Ohio State game. No one with any experience backs Pickett up. Neuheisel must deal with the most hostile press corps in the Pac-10, much of it of his own making. Fickle fans from last season could turn on the team if they lose to Ohio State and UCLA in early games. With expectations so high, this will be a critical year for Rick Neuheisel and his program.

 

The Odds:

 

With an experienced jockey on board, the Udub is an effective running game away from winning the race for the Roses. Good on a wet track. Bet them to win or place.

 

2. USC. Trojan horse on a Conquest--sans rider.

 

The Good:

 

This is a team of "bests." I like USC's chances because the Trojans should have a running game to compliment the best defense in the conference. Pete Carroll ranks with Rick Neuheisel and Mike Bellotti as one of the best coaches in the Pac-10. Matt Leinhart was the best quarterback to play in the 2000 CaliFlorida football game in my opinion. 'SC had one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Wide receiver Whitney Lewis has bested his SAT. Four of five offensive linemen return and should open some holes for tailbacks FR Reggie Bush and SO Hershel Dennis. Mike Williams could be the most dominate wide receiver in the country.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

USC must replace 3/4 of its starting backfield. As of now USC isn't sure of its starting quarterback. Will it be Matt Cassell or Matt Leinhart? Both quarterbacks, who are unproven and untested, will try to replace Heisman Trophy winner Carson Palmer. His shoes may be too big to fill. Likewise, these key player losses could wipe that annoying smile off Carroll's face: SS Troy Polamalu, RB Justin Fargas, WR Kareem Kelly, RB Sultan McCullough, OG Zach Wilson and CB DeShaun Hill. Will DE Shaun Cody, who is recovering from a knee injury, be back for fall? Carroll may be asking Todd Marinovich about the virtues of having a young quarterback face a sea of purple in Seattle.

 

The Odds:

 

If jockey Matt Leinhart gives Traveler a good ride,  it's all over. Bet USC to win or place.

 

3. ASU. Koetter Suggs but Tempe-rarily.

 

The Good:

 

Dirk Koetter's kids are on the rise, coming off an 8-6 season with 17 starters returning. ASU will be led by returning QB Andrew Walter, who was third best in pass efficiency in the Pac-10 last season. The two ahead of him, Palmer and Gesser, are gone. Walter is a strong-armed QB who will be throwing to a plethora of fine receivers; among them being Skyler Fulton, Daryl Lightfoot, Matt Miller, and Terry Richardson. The Sun Devils have experience and some depth on the offensive line, which hopes to improve its rushing stats (89 yards per game) from last season. The Sun Devils don't play title contender Washington.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

The Devils lose DE Terrell Suggs, who was taken by Baltimore as the tenth player in first round of the NFL draft. Like Washington, the Devils must improve their running game. Sorely felt will be the loss of WR Shaun McDonald, TE Mike Pinkard, LB Mason Unck, S Alfred Williams, and K Mike Barth  To be a strong contender, ASU must improve on its scoring-defense, rushing-defense, and sacks-against statistics.

 

The Odds:

 

Like the Huskies, ASU could be a running game away from the finish line. Bet them to show.

 

4. Oregon. Ladies of the Knight court Eugene

 

The Good:

 

Thanks to the departure of Mike Price, Oregon fields the dean of Pac-10 coaches, the mustachioed Mike Bellotti, who, like the other Mike, will dance with destiny if 15 returning starters and QB Jason Fife have their way with the others in the conference. In eight years as head coach at Oregon, Bellotti has won 70 percent of his games. Defensively, Bellotti has a beast in DT Haloti Ngata. For a Pac-10 team, Oregon had a solid running game last season, finishing second in the conference in rushing yards per game (145.6). The offensive line returns intact. The Ducks have a significant home-field advantage playing in Autzen Stadium, which can be a din of inequity on Saturday afternoons when they unpack Eugene.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

Oregon must rush the ball as well as it did last season to be a contender in 2003. The Ducks must find someone to replace TB Onterrio Smith. As of now, the Ducks don't have a starting quarterback named, even though QB Jason Fife, a fifth-year senior, returns. His collapse during the second half of last season means that the coaching staff may be keen on QB Kellen Clemens. In the conference last season, the Ducks finished next to last in pass offense and pass defense. Overall defensively, the Ducks finished last in the conference. In the spring game, the Whites beat the Greens 48-46, the scoring being determined by Bellotti's unique scoring system, approved by Phil Knight, of course. WR Sammie Parker hopes to mimic departed Keenan Howry's pass catching skills.

 

The Odds:

 

Most likely out of the money. Will start fast but will fade down the stretch unless jockey Fife applies the whip.

 

5. WSU. He wasn't caught inflagrante delicto

 

The Good:

 

WSU returns 15 starters from a team that finished 7-1 in the conference last season and 10-3 overall. The Cougs will be led by senior quarterback Matt Kegel, a senior QB being a requisite for winning the conference championship in the last nine years. WR Devard Darling and TB Jermaine Green both return. Last season, Green averaged 63.8 yards per game rushing the ball and Darling averaged 61.5 yards per game catching the ball. During the spring game, the Crimson pummeled the Gray, 36-3, using a cadre of number 1 defensive and offensive players. Kegel completed 16 passes in 25 attempts for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

Although he was an assistant coach at WSU last season, new head coach Bill Doba, 62, needs to replace Mike Price with an effective system of his own. Matt Kegel needs to find a way to replace QB Jason Gesser at quarterback. Since neither Doba nor Kegel have well-established records, the Cougars' success in 2003 hinges on two big unknowns. The Cougars need to improve on their third down conversions; they lose first-round draft pick CB Marcus Trufant. Kegel needs to come up to speed. In three prior seasons, he completed 87 passes in 174 attempts for 1035 yards. He was intercepted 3 times, while throwing for 3 touchdowns. His pass efficiency was 105.99 in 2001. He has played in 24 games, starting in 2 of them. 

 

The Odds:

 

More than a sleeper. Take the odds if they're right.

 

6. UCLA. No new scandals are brew'in

 

The Good:

 

Hopefully, with the departure of UCLA head coach Bob Toledo, the lingering stigma of the handicapped-parking permit scandal, the SUV debacle and the hammering of Taylor Barton all will be forgotten. Also, the Los Angeles Times doesn't have QB Cory Paus to kick around anymore. The Bruins were a senior dominated team the year before last. Last season, they played 22 freshman and this season, they'll start one senior. In the midst of youth and inexperience, the Blue is coming off an 8-5 season and returns 14 starters. Unfortunately, Bob Toledo, a champion among recruiters, won't be around to see the fruits of his labors come to pass. Some notables are returning: TB Tyler "the Mighty Mouse" Ebell, DT Rodney Leisle, CB Matt Ware, and  DE Dave "The Wrecking" Ball. Like the Huskies, the Bruins played their 1's against their 1's during spring ball, which should make them a stronger team come fall.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

The Bruins are one of our two sleeper teams for 2003, even though Karl Dorrell is without head coaching experience. The laconic Dorrell needs to speak out and settle on one quarterback, either Matt Moore or Drew Olson, both of whom are sophomores. UCLA loses QB Cory Paus, OT Mike Saffer, OT Bryce Bohlander, TE Mike Seidman, CB Ricky Manning, and LB Marcus Reese. The loss of Bohlander and Saffer could cripple a rushing attack that finished sixth in the conference last season. Realistically, the Bruins are too young to do any serious damage. The Bruins need to return to Thousand Oaks for summer practices--to rest their coaches for some long commutes to Westwood in the fall. Because of the timing of Toledo's firing, the Bruins lost out on some local talent that USC gobbled up during the 2003 recruiting season.

 

The Odds:

 

You can't switch jockeys in mid-stream. If Dorrell settles on a jockey who performs well, the Blue will finish in the top three. Take the odds if they're right.

 

7. OSU. Bucolic Beavers lead the life of Riley

 

The Good:

 

New head coach Mike Riley welcomes 18 starters, including two specialists, back from the 2002 season, 10 of which are on offense. Four offensive linemen return. TB Steven Jackson may be the best in the Pac-10. Derek Anderson is one of the few experienced signal callers returning in the Pac-10. Riley coached at Oregon State during the 1997 and 1998 seasons, so his learning curve won't be that steep. The Beavers led the conference in rushing last season. OSU doesn't have to play UCLA, whom we've ranked above them. OSU is the second of our two sleeper teams.

 

The Bad and Musts:

 

Mike Riley must establish his new system with his players, both clearly and definitively; otherwise, he'll be just a brand new head coach testing his wings.  OLB Nick Barnett, who was chosen twentieth in the NFL's first round, must be replaced. QB Derek Anderson must overcome the inconsistency that marred his 2002 season.  In 2002, his 47% pass-completion record was the worst in the Pac-10. The Beavers must replace two talented cornerbacks, Dennis Weathersby and Terrell Roberts.

 

The Odds:

 

A sleeper. Take the odds if they get too long.

 

8. UCB. Cal not Boller-ing anyone over

 

The good and the bad:

 

It's hard to say anything good about Cal's fortunes, other than Coach Jeff Tedford is back after a successful season in 2002. QB Kyle Boller and a passel of other seniors (23) have departed, leaving just nine returning starters, one of whom is a specialist. The battle for the number one quarterback slot will be between JC transfer Aaron Rogers (JR), Cary Dove (FR) and Reggie Robertson (JR). Cal lost two players to the first round of the NFL draft, namely QB Kyle Boller and CB Nnamdi Asomugha. The Bears must depend on 10 JC transfers to fill some gaps, along with a strong recruiting class.

 

The Odds:

 

Stay away from this one.

 

9. Stanford. Erickson Harris's his Buddy.

 

The good and the bad:

 

After finishing 2-9 in his first season at Stanford, Coach Buddy Teevens is on the hot seat. Thirteen players are back, but only three of them on offense. The Cardinal finished last in total offense in last season's Pac-10 and out-of-conference play. Its once vaunted air assault ranked last in pass offense last season. Furthermore, even though senior QB Chris Lewis returns, the QB situation remained unsettled after the Cardinal's spring game because Trent Edwards outplayed Lewis, according to reports on the Internet. To add insult to injury, Dennis Erickson, the new 49ers coach, picked OT senior-to-be Kwame Harris in the first round of the NFL draft. Although 8 starters return from last season's defense, it ranked seventh in total defense and gave up 34.3 points per game. Teams scored on the Cardinal 87.5% of the time they were inside the Cardinal's redzone, a worst in the conference.

 

The Odds:

 

Stay away from the Tree, no matter what the odds.

 

10. Arizona. Mackovic needs Lute lessons

 

The good and the ugly:

 

Coach John Mackovic must put out a few remaining sparks left over from a player conflagration that originated in the School of Pyrotechnics last season. Since Mackovic sports a 9-14 record after two seasons with the Wildcats, he may be on the hot seat. Fifteen starters return from a team that went 4 and 8 last season. Gone are WR Bobby Wade and QB Jason Johnson. Nic Costa could be one of the more elusive QBs to sack in the conference if he can beat Ryan O'Hara and John Rattay out at that position. Costa sat out most of the spring game with a sore finger, while O'Hara and Rattay demonstrated their stuff. The 'Cats may need Costa. The OL surrendered 52 sacks last year, the worst in the conference, and failed to hold off the pass rush in the spring game. The kicking specialists looked good in that scrimmage.

 

The Odds:

 

Off the board.

 

-- Reference Pac-10 Preview, 2003 for a tabularized skinny of how we ranked the teams in the conference.