How to double the rushing stat
It’s already broken, so fix it
By: Malamute, Posted 1 April 2003

As they say in golf, too much analysis can lead to paralysis; likewise, any honest auto mechanic will tell you, “If it’s not broken, don’t fix it.” An analysis and fixing of the Huskies’ rushing attack can’t lead to paralysis and breaking—it’s already paralyzed and broken. Anyway, since I’m doing the analysis and fixing and since nobody is going to listen to me, I can’t make matters worse, as they say.

Last season, the Dawgs’ running game was ineffective, running contrary to Husky tradition.

To wit, the Dawgs averaged 74 yards/per game on the ground, finishing near the bottom of Division IA football.

It is an embarrassing number by all standards.

Husky legend Hugh McElhenny could get you 74 yards on one play, as could other running-back legends, Napoleon Kaufman, Joe Steele, and Cory Dillon. In the 1946 game against Saint Mary’s, Arnie Weinmeister, a Washington tackle converted to fullback, rumbled for 56 yards to set up his own touchdown plunge of one yard.

Last season, Rich Alexis provided the Huskies with its longest run from scrimmage with a 54-yard gallop, which is two-yards less than the converted fullback’s run. Chris Singleton had a longest run of 27 yards.

With 16 of 22 position players returning in 2003, the Huskies should be one of the dominating teams in the Pac-10 next season--providing they improve their rushing attack.

So, it’s time for some expert analysis.

Please note: Actually, as a fan who never played football in code-blue mode, I’m not qualified to make any sort of analysis. However, in the off-season, anything goes, as they say.

In my mind, all the Dawgs need to do is tweak their offense a bit; a complete overhaul of the offense isn’t needed.

With slight modification to the offense, the Dawgs can double their numbers; that is, double the number of yards rushing per game over that of last season. That'll be enough to win the Pac-10 title. Last season, Co-conference champion USC rushed for 142.5 yards per game; Oregon State had the best rushing stats in the Pac-10, averaging 148 yards per game.

If we take the Husky number, 74, and double it, we get the OSU number, coincidentally. That's our bogey--not to say there's anything Beaverish about being a Dawg.

Everyone knows that the Huskies play a version of the West Coast Offense (WCO), which in theory attempts to set up the run with the pass. With senior quarterback Cody Pickett returning next season, the Huskies, most likely, will continue to run its version of the WCO.

Note: Whether the Huskies run a true WCO, use a variation of it, employ a short-passing game or have installed a dink-and-dunk offense are all moot. I need a model to work from, so I chose the WCO. That's it and I'm sticking to it, as they say.

And that’s good for me in this analytical endeavor.

Pickett almost perfectly fits the mold of a WCO quarterback, as does his backup, Casey Paus. At 6-foot-4, Pickett is as tall as or taller than the Huskies' centers, Brad Vanneman (6-foot-3) and Todd Bachert (6-foot-4); also, he’s mobile, he’s intelligent, and he has a quick release.

To set up the run with the pass, the Huskies need to use the talents of Pickett more effectively.

Due to a shoulder separation that Pickett suffered in the 2001 season, the coaches were reluctant to let him run last season, and he accounted for minus yardage on the ground, losing an average of 14 yards per game, mainly due to sacks.

To be more effective, Pickett needs to run the ball rather than take a coverage sack, especially when inside the red zone. If Pickett were to lose no more yards than he were to gain on the ground, the Huskies would pick up 14 yards per game next season.

That would bring the total to 88 yards per game, all things the same.

Here are 20 more yards.

To set up the run with the pass—and get 20 more yards on the ground— the UW needs to throw more to its tight end and fullback. That may seem like a wonky way to do it, but hear me out.

Ideally, in a WCO implementation, a tight end should average 5 catches per game and the running backs should average 10 catches per game. In 2002, Husky tight ends averaged 3.5 catches per game, while its running backs averaged 4.8 catches per game. In the same season, Husky fullbacks averaged a paltry .5 catches per game.

I look for Washington to complete more passes to its tight end next season due to the fact that Kevin Ware--who was a better blocker than he was a receiver--has graduated and due to the fact that he will be replaced by one of two tight ends who excel at catching the ball.

To replace Ware, the Huskies bring in TE Jon Lyon (6-foot-6, 251) from the J.C. ranks. Also, redshirt-sophomore-to-be Joe Toledo (6-foot-6, 290) may be asked to fill the void at tight end, providing he successfully recovers from a shoulder injury.

The Huskies have a dilemma at fullback. Obviously, they need to throw more to the fullback, Zach Tuiasosopo. However, Tuiasosopo (6-foot-2, 245) is a better blocker than he is a pass catcher. As a running back he looks like a shortened version of Arnie Weinmeister--which isn't all bad. But I look for the Huskies to back up Tuiasosopo with redshirt-sophomore-to-be Ty Eriks (6-foot-2, 235) and use him in a pass catching role, attempting to gain some yards after catch at the fullback position.

Hence, in a 2-WR, 2-RB, 1-TE base set, where any of these five players can be the primary receiver at any given time, I look for Pickett to throw more to his fullback and tight end, especially inside the red zone.

With a dynamic, less-predictable passing attack, the Huskies should be more effective at running the ball. It's play action in reverse and should buy the 20-plus-yards I mentioned.

Besides having Pickett running the ball and throwing to his tight end and fullback more, we should see some improvement in the offensive line and the cadre of running backs. Add some serendipity in scheduling.

Those improvements, sprinkled with a smattering of luck in scheduling, should buy the Dawgs 40 more yards, which brings the total to the magic number of 148 yards rushing per game; that's double the number (74) from last season and is what I promised.

With fourth-fifths of the offensive line returning, a marked improvement in run blocking should occur because of the experience and depth of the unit. In the main, this line has played as a unit for two years now. Seven of the 11 returning linemen have won two or more letters, and two returning backups were starters in some of the games last season, that is, Dan Dicks in six games and Robin Meadow in two games.

Also, new offensive line coach Dan Cozzetto, who brings extensive coaching experience to Washington, should add more push to the offensive line, while adding more emphasis to the running game.

A weaker Pac-10 schedule should help Washington’s rushing attack. Stanford, which finished next to last in rushing defense last season, is back on the schedule, and by all accounts, next season will be a down year for Pac-10 teams as a whole.

In rushing yards allowed per game, Stanford allowed 60 more yards than the Huskies averaged in 2002. Dividing 60 by 12 (the number of games on the schedule for 2003), the Dawgs pick up five yards-per-game (ypg) in 2003. Dan Cozzetto should be happy to hear that.

To bolster its corps of running backs (Rich Alexis, Chris Singleton, Shelton Sampson, and Kenny James), the Dawgs bring in highly-regarded Louis Rankin from Lincoln High School in Stockton. If injuries should cripple this unit, look for the Huskies to give in-coming freshman C. J. Wallace, though recruited as a defensive back, a shot at running back.

It would be a huge mistake not to try Wallace at running back if the conditions should warrant, for he's got Lorezno-Booker-type wheels.

TB Kenny James who will wear number 8 on his jersey--the same number that Willie Hurst and Nip Kaufman wore--has the moves and power to pay homage to that redoubtable number and to put his hometown, Dos Palos, on the map. In the 2001 season, Hurst averaged 61 ypg and Rich Alexis accounted for 36 ypg. I look for the James/Alexis model to be a yards-guzzler, more so than was the 2001 model (Hurst/Alexis).

At Picture Day 2002, I told James that he would be wearing a historic number on his jersey, a number that will be forever more reserved—I hope—for the best running back to come out of California and join the Washington forces. He gave me a sly smile, as if to say, heck, that was my number in high school.

So much for cloying pep talks.

That’s my opinion, for whatever it’s worth; it's my two cents. That’s it in a nutshell. I hope it's not wishful thinking, as they say.

Table 1. How the 2002 season's rushing yards per game can be doubled