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Huskies looking to cast out demons
How the Huskies and Devils match up statistically
By: Richard Linde, Posted 25 October 2002

Coming off a loss to USC, Washington (4-3, 1-2) meets Arizona State (6-2, 3-0) in Tempe on Saturday night and looks to cast out some demons by way of Beelzebub who worships the sun. Washington leads the Pac-10 in total offense and in pass offense. The Sun Devils lead the Pac-10 in sacks. 

Of the five major categories shown below, Washington dominates ASU, 2-1-2, winning two, losing 1 and tying two. Conversely, the Sun Devils best the Huskies in 11 of the 20 sub-categories. 

Of those 20 statistical categories shown below, Washington has an average Pac-10 ranking of 5.8, while ASU has an average ranking of 5.3. Of the teams they've played thus far, the Huskies' opponents have won 49% of their games and the Sun Devils' opponents have won 50% of their games (Division 1A only). If the rankings (5.8 to 5.3) are normalized by the opponents' loss percentages, the Sun Devils have a statistical edge, 2.65 to 2.958, i.e., ((5.3*.50=2.65) versus (5.8*.51=2.958)). 

The Devils have a 53% chance of winning, i.e., (2.958/(2.65+2.958)). Their normalized Pac-10 ranking is 53% better than Washington's. 

ASU is a 3 1/2 point favorite. The game will not be telecast. The forecast is for PM showers and an afternoon temperature of 79 degrees. 

This one could go either way. Although they are an underdog playing on the road, I look for the Huskies to win. The Huskies have emotion going for them; they do have an outstanding passing game; and they know how to stop the run.

Prediction: UW 35-32

 Table 1. How they stand in the Pac-10

Category UW Pac ASU Pac
1. BALL CONTROL        
Time of Possession 32:23 3rd  30:49 5th
         
2. BLOCKING/TACKLING        
Rushing Offense 84.9 9th  119.5 6th
Passing Offense 377.7 1st  297.5 4th
Rushing Defense 84.1 2nd 104.9 5th
Passing Defense 291.3 9th 253.8 6th
Pass Efficiency Defense 144.8 10th 115.3 5th
Pass Efficiency Offense 144.5 3rd 139.7 6th
Total Offense 462.6 1st 417.0 3rd
Total Defense 375.4 9th 358.6 5th
         
3. MISTAKES        
Penalties 54.1 2nd 78.6 9th
Turnover Margin -0.43 9th .88 4th
         
4. FIELD POSITION        
Kickoff Returns 21.2 4th 21.9 3rd
Punt Returns 6.4 9th 8.9 8th
Punting (Net Per Punt) 35.3 7th 36.2 5th
Kickoff Coverage 20.9 7th 18.8 3rd
         
5. SCOREBOARD, BABY        
Field Goals .706 3rd .600 6th
Red Zone Offense 75.8% 6th 75.7% 7th
Red Zone Defense 77.3% 8th 76.0% 5th
Points For 31.7 6th 36.4 2nd
Points Against 25.4 8th 25.5 9th

 

 

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