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Number one offense versus number one defense How the Huskies and Trojans match up statistically By: Richard Linde, Posted 16 October 2002  When
Washington (4-2, 1-1) and USC (4-2, 2-1) collide in Los Angeles next Saturday, something has
got to give. Washington leads the Pac-10 in total offense and passing offense.
USC leads the Pac-10 in total defense and passing defense.
In Table 1 below, the Trojans trump the Huskies in three of the five major categories, with two even. The Trojans best the Huskies in 12 of the 19 sub-categories. Of those 19 statistical categories shown below, Washington has an average Pac-10 ranking of 5.57, while USC has an average ranking of 4.74. Of the teams they've played thus far, the Huskies' opponents have won 46% of their games and the Trojans' opponents have won 71% of their games. If the rankings (5.57 to 4.74) are normalized by the opponents' loss percentages, the Trojans have a statistical edge, 1.38 to 3.01, i.e., ((4.74*.29=1.38)(5.57*.54=3.01)). The Trojans have a 69% chance of winning, i.e., (3.01/(1.38+3.01)). Their normalized Pac-10 ranking is 69% better than Washington's. USC is a 7 1/2 point favorite. The game will be telecast live by ABC at 12:30 PM (PDT). The forecast is for partly cloudy weather and 73 degrees. Without a running game, the Huskies figure to be blown out on the road once more, so forget the stats. J Prediction: USC 38-17
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