Can Ted-Fordge a Neu road?
The statistics say, no
By: Richard Linde, Posted 3 October 2002

Cal’s new coach Jeff Tedford hopes to forge a new road and break Cal’s 19-game losing streak to the Washington Huskies, when his Bears clash with the Huskies in Seattle on Saturday. Washington (3-1) hopes to extend its home winning streak to eighteen. 

Now that Pac-10 play commences for the Dawgs, the creampuffs will turn into hard rock candy and the Husky defense and running game—both questionable confectionaries—will either meltdown (be ineffective) or turn into jawbreakers for the opposition, the latter being especially true when you consider the Huskies’ passing attack, which is first in the Pac-10 and second in the nation.

In Table 1 below, the Huskies (3-1, 0-0) trump the Bears (3-2, 0-1) in rushing offense and four defensive stats, the Dawgs winning all seven categories that fall under Blocking and Tackling. Cal bests Washington in turn over margin (second in the Pac-10) and in red zone offense (first in the Pac-10). The Huskies lead the Pac-10 in red zone defense. 

Of the 18 statistical categories shown below, Washington has an average Pac-10 ranking of 4.9, while Cal has an average ranking of 5.7. The Huskies best the Bears in 12 of the 18 categories. Of the teams they've played thus far, the Huskies' opponents have won 42% of their games and the Bears' opponents have won 67% of their games. If the sub-category statistics (12 to 6) are normalized by these win percentages, the Huskies have a statistical edge, 5.04 to 4.02, i.e., ((.42*12=5.04)(.67*6=4.02)). 

Prediction: Huskies 35, Bears 32

 Table 1. How they stand in the Pac-10