Inside the Pac, Part X

Inside the Pac--a look at the Cal Bears for 2002
Can Jeff Tedford put the Golden back in Bears?
By: Malamute, 30 July 2002

The California Golden Bears welcome their new head coach, 40-year old Jeff Tedford, who coached the high-octane offense at Oregon last season--while tutoring its Heisman Trophy candidate Joey Harrington. Before his stint as offensive coordinator at Oregon, Tedford was quarterbacks coach at Fresno State where he tutored Trent Dilfer. Tedford has the smarts to be a head coach; does he have the horses?

He certainly has the numbers. Returning starters include: seven on offense, nine on defense and both specialists, the kicker and punter. However, last season, California finished last in both total offense and total defense in the Pac-10. Quality, not quantity, will be the question at key positions for the Golden Bears.

The quality is there at quarterback, in returning senior Kyle Boller (6-4, 205). Rated by many to be the best high school quarterback to come out of the San Fernando Valley since John Elway, Boller, out of Newhall, has not quite lived up to expectations, being a 45% career passer. His poor won/lost record at Cal, however, most likely has to do with the surrounding talent than his innate ability.

Cal comes off a 1-10 season (0-8 Pac-10) and hopes to improve on that record. With the exception of one category, the Bears finished in the bottom half of the combined 23 offensive and defensive statistical categories we looked at (Tables 6 and 7, Pac-10).

Not only must Tedford reverse a losing mindset among players and fans, he must also overcome the stigma of a five-year probation dealt by the NCAA--which makes Cal bowl ineligible this season. Also, the Bears lose nine scholarship players over the next five four seasons. His task in unenviable.

Three players and the tight end return on the offensive line. Two of them Scott Tecero (RG, 6-5, 295) and Mark Wilson (RT, 6-6, 295) are All-Pac-10 candidates. They'll block for talented running back Joe Igber (5-8, 200) who rushed for 399 yards and caught passes for 139 yards, while playing in seven games. Also, Terrell Williams (6-0, 195) returns at running back. He posted 688 yards on the ground, playing in 11 games. The other returning offensive line starter, senior center Ryan Jones (6-4, 270), anchors an offensive line that will miss departing OT Langston Walker (second round, Oakland) and OG Brandon Ludwig.

At tight end, Tom Swoboda (6-4, 235) caught 8 passes for 89 yards, while playing in 10 games; senior tight end Terrance Dotsy (6-4, 285) caught 3 passes for 29 yards in a like number of games. Orange Coast College transfer Brandon Hall (Jr., 6-4, 240) will back them up. Hall, who caught 26 passes for 295 yards, may step to the fore and ramp up the position--pass-catching-wise.

Former cornerback (2001) LeShaun Ward (Sr., 6-1, 195) returns at wide receiver. Playing in 11 games last season (seven at wide receiver), he caught 18 passes for 416 yards and rushed 4 times for 69 yards. Coming off an injury, Geoff McArthur (6-1, 200) will function as a possession receiver; he led Cal's receivers in the 2000 season. WR Charon Arnold and FB Marcus Fields who accounted for a combined 79 receptions (907 yards) have departed.

Nine players return to a defense led by DE Tully Banta-Cain (6-4, 260) and FS Nnamdi Asomugha (6-2, 210). In addition to Banta-Cain, three other defensive linemen return: Daniel Nwangwu (DT, 6-4, 290), Lorenzo Alexander (DT, 6-3, 280), and Josh Gustaveson (DE, 6-3, 255). Playing in 11 games last season, Banta-Cain had 33 tackles (23 solo) and 8 sacks (5th in the conference). Asomugha had 54 tackles (40 solo) and 3 interceptions. He played in 10 games last season. Alexander, 11 games, had 24 tackles (20 solo) and 1 sack.

Two experienced inside line backers return: seniors John Klotsche (6-0 240) and ILB Matt Nixon (6-1, 220). Klotsche had 71 tackles (59 solo) and Nixon had 53 tackles (32 solo).

Two experienced cornerbacks return, starters Ray Carmel (5-11, 185) and James Bethea (6-0, 190). They are backed up by junior Atari Callen (5-9, 190), who had 41 tackles (29 solo) and 8 passes broken up, and Jemeel Powell (6-1, 185), who had 15 tackles (13 solo) and one interception.

Punter Tyler Frederickson (6-3, 205) and kicker Mark-Christian Jensen (6-2, 195) return. Frederickson averaged 39.5 yards per punt, while Jensen made 78.6% of his field goals and 100% of his PAT's. The kicking game looks solid.

We give Cal 32 power points, eighth in the conference, largely because of its incoming coaching staff, which will need a year to teach its new system (see Table 8). Incoming coaches get one point in our system, while winning coaches with experience in the league get as much as five points. Can Tedford accomplish this daunting mission sooner than expected, can he turn Cal's stock from a bear into a bull, pun intended? If so, Cal could be a sleeper according to our ranking, but it's not likely.

Table 1. On the upside

Upside Item	Comment
Although the Bears went 1-10 last season, six of their games were against top 25 teams.	Hmmm.
Senior quarterback Kyle Boller returns.	He's a 49.3% passer for the Bears last season, and is better than his 12:10 touchdown to interception ratio would indicate.
The Blues beat the Golds 42-0 in the spring game	Unfortunately, both the second team offense and defense played for the Golds.
Kyle Boller showed good foot speed during the spring game.	Will Tedford allow Boller to be more creative this season?
Inside the Pac-10, the Bears return the most players of any school on defense.	Certainly, they will improve on their defensive statistics in 2002.
Reportedly WR Junior Brignac could walk on.	He spent four years in minor league baseball and can use his baseball signing bonus to pay for his tuition if he needs. He signed with the Huskies in 1996, but opted for a baseball contract instead.
Backup quarterback Reggie Robertson could be used as an option quarterback inside the red zone.	He has good speed and a strong arm. The Bears finished 9th in red-zone offense last season.

Table 2. On the downside

Downside Item	Comment
Five tough Pac-10 games in a row without a break in the schedule.	In five consecutive weeks, the Bears play WSU, UW, USC, UCLA and OSU, all contenders for the conference title.
Due to NCAA sanctions, Cal is ineligible for a bowl game this season and is on probation for five years.	The university plans an appeal. California loses nine scholarships over the next four years.
Boller plays under his third offensive coordinator	Goerge Cortez, offensive coordinator at Calgary last season, will mastermind plays for the Bears. He could be a plus--but once more it's a new system for Boller to learn.
Tedford must reverse a losing mindset among his returning players	The Bears come off a 1-10 season and were 0-8 in the Pac-10.
The Bears face four tough road games.	At Michigan State, Washington, USC and Oregon State.

Table 3. Returnees on offense (seven)

Player	Pos.	Eligible Yr	Ht.	Wt.
Scott Tercero	RG	Sr.	6-5	295
Ryan Jones	C	Sr.	6-4	270
Mark Wilson	RT	Jr.	6-6	295
Tom Swoboda	TE	Sr.	6-4	235
LeShaun Ward	WR	Sr.	6-1	195
Kyle Boller	QB	Sr.	6-4	205
Terrell Williams	RB	So.	6-0	195

Table 4. Returnees on defense (nine)

Player	Pos.	Eligible Yr	Ht.	Wt.
Tully Banta-Cain	DE	Sr.	6-4	260
Daniel Nwangwu	DT	Sr.	6-4	290
Lorenzo Alexander	DT	So.	6-3	280
Josh Gustaveson	DE	Sr.	6-3	255
Matt Nixon	ILB	Sr.	6-1	220
John Klotsche	ILB	Sr.	6-0	240
Ray Carmel	CB	Sr.	5-11	185
Nnamdi Asomugha	FS	Sr.	6-2	210
James Bethea	CB	Jr.	6-0	190

Table 5. How key Bear returnees did in the Pac-10 in 2001

Player	Category	Pac	Stat
Terrell Williams	Rushing	9	62.5 y/g
Kyle Boller	Passing	9	174.1 y/g
Kyle Boller	Total Off.	9	180 y/g
Michael Sparks	Punt Returns	9	6/5 y/g
T. Fredrickson	Punting	5	39.5 y/g
Mark Jensen	Kick scoring	10	5 pts/g
Mark Jensen	Field Goals	5	1.0 fg/g
Mark Jensen	F/G Percent.	2	78.6%
Mark Jensen	PAT Kicking	T1	100%
John Klotche	Tackles	18	6.5 p/g
N. Asomugha	Tackles	28	5.4 p/g
Matt Nixon	Tackles	40	4.8 p/g
T. Banta-Cain	Sacks	5	.73 p/g
T. Banta-Cain	Tackles/Loss	2	1.5 p/g
Tom Canada	Fumbles Rec.	T2	3

Table 6. The Bears' Offensive Statistics in Pac-10, 2001

Category	Finish
Scoring Offense	10th
Pass Offense	9th
Turnover Margin	10th
Rushing Offense	8th
Total Offense	9th
Pass Efficiency	10th
First Downs	6th
Fourth-down conversions	9th
Red Zone Offense	9th
Third-down conversions	9th
Sacks Against	8th
Time of Possession	7th
Average Finish	8.7

Table 7. Cal's Defensive Statistics in Pac-10, 2001

Statistic	Finish
Scoring Defense	10th
Pass Defense	10th
Rushing Defense	8th
Total Defense	10th
Pass Efficiency Defense	10th
Opponent first downs	10th
Sacks By	7th
Opponent 4th down conversions	10th
Red Zone Defense	7th
Opponent 3rd down conversions	4th
Sacks Against	7th
Average Finish	8.5

Table 8. Cal's 2002 Power Point Ranking is 32, good enough for eighth place in the Pac-10. (Points range from minus 3 to plus 5, relative to other Pac-10 teams).

Area	UW	WSU	UCLA	USC	OSU	UA	UO	Cal	SU	ASU
Coaching	5	5	4	3	4	3	5	1	1	2
Home field	4	2	4	2	3	2	5	1	3	3
QB's	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	3
Road Killers	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	-1
Return Off.	5	5	3	5	4	5	2	4	4	2
Return Def	3	3	3	3	5	4	4	5	2	5
2001 Offense	4	5	3	3	4	4	5	2	5	4
2001 Defense	3	5	5	5	4	3	3	1	4	2
2001 Top 25	5	3	4	3	2	4	2	6	4	3
Punting	4	3	5	3	4	3	3	4	3	3
Field Goals	3	4	4	5	3	3	2	4	3	3
Total	40	39	38	36	36	35	34	32	31	29

Coaching--New head coaches gets 1 point in this league. After that it's based on won/lost record (or tenure) relative to other coaches in the league. As dean of Pac-10 head coaches, Mike Price (WSU) automatically gets 5 points.

Road Killers--Playing at either UCLA, Oregon or Washington is considered a road killer. Rivalry games played at their joints are not. Reser Stadium (OSU) is fast approaching road killer status.

Quarterbacks--Seniors get 5 points; however, he has to have a capable backup--otherwise, it's 4.

Top 25--The number of top 25 teams (according to the last USA/Coaches Poll) played during the regular season. This helps normalize the 2001 offensive/defensive rankings, e.g., the hammering Washington took at number one Miami skewed its 2001 stats downward.

Home-field Advantage--Based on its last five-seasons at home against Pac-10 opposition.

Returning offense/defense; 2001 offense/defense--Compared to other Pac-10 teams

Punting Field Goal Kicking--Relative to other returning kickers in this league based on last season's stats.

Table 9. The Bears' 2002 Schedule

Date	Opponent
August 31	Baylor
September 7	New Mexico State
September 14	At Michigan State
September 21	Air Force
September 28	Washington State
October 5	At Washington
October 12	at USC
October 19	UCLA
October 26	at Oregon State
November 9	At Arizona State
November 16	Arizona
November 29	Stanford