Pac-10 preview, 2002

Pac-10 Preview, 2002

Sprucing up old tables with some springtime cleaning

By: Richard Linde, 9 April 2002

The Huskies' Kevin Ware must step up the plate and replace Jerramy Stevens at tight end.

In this review, we present a tabularized skinny of the teams vying for the Pac-10 conference championship this upcoming season. In our estimation, the conference title is up for grabs, with UCLA, WSU, USC and Washington being our early favorites to put the pedal to the metal on the way to Pasadena.

If we were asked to pick a winner--and we weren't--as of now, UCLA is our favorite to win all the marbles because it has the necessary ingredients to win in a conference rife with parity; that is, the Bruins have a proven coach, an easy Pac-10 road schedule, a senior quarterback, a significant home-field advantage, thirteen returning starters and a strong incoming class to augment some key-player losses.

But this is all subject to change--daily. In other words, your guess is as good as ours. The Pac-10 schedule is included in this mishmash.

Table 1. 4malamute.com's summary of the race for the Roses.

School	Positives	Negatives/Musts
UCLA	No need for handicapped parking permits or SUV's. Easy Pac-10 road schedule; Plays WSU at home; Proven coach; significant home-field advantage. Strong recruiting class should help replace key players lost from last season. WR Junior Taylor has qualified.	Although he's a senior QB, Cory Paus has had a spotty record at UCLA due to injury and a few lapses. The stigma left by the DeShaun Foster episode will be haunting. Because of last season's collapse, Coach Toledo needs to get off the hot seat.
WSU	No need to guess with Gesser at helm. Easy Pac-10 road schedule. Veteran head coach. Senior QB in the shifty Jason Gesser.	Over the last five years, little, if any, home-field advantage. Needs a running back to come to the fore and some help at safety.
USC	Tailback-U again? Returns most of offensive line. This could be Carson Palmer's breakout year. RB's Sultan McCullough and Justin Fargus could give opposition a blast from the past. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow is in second year. Good recruiting class.	Three tough Pac-10 games on the road. Defensive holes to fill. Not much of a home-field advantage. Everybody wants to beat 'SC.
Washington	One year away? Arguably has the best QB in the league. Significant home-field advantage. Incoming RB, Kenny James, will augment a potentially strong stable of running backs. Most of offensive line returns. Winning coaching staff. Five "easy" games in a row at home, with sandwiched bye-week, will tune the team for the road. Good recruiting class.	Four tough Pac-10 games on the road. Replacing NT Larry Tripplett and RB Willie Hurst are key. Needs to develop a stronger running game. Must show stronger defense on road, with less turnovers on offense. Offense must take pressure off a defense that is a year away from gelling as a unit.
Oregon	No need to spend money on billboard in NYC since Pal Joey's gone. Significant home-field advantage; Winning head coach. Returns three offensive linemen. Five incoming JC transfers.	Replacing QB Joey Harrington won't be easy. Backup to RB Ontario Smith? Offense won't carry defense again. Ninth in total defense last season. Three tough games on road.
OSU	Our sleeper; lightening fast and mean spirited at home. Returns 17 starters. Significant home-field advantage. Winning head coach. Returns RB Steven Jackson. Strong defense. According to Erickson, "Getting to people and knocking the crap out of them. That's going to be our M.O." (quote taken from beaverfootball.com)	Three tough Pac-10 road games. Back up at QB and RB not clear.
Stanford	No D again. Returns veteran QB, Chris Lewis. Seven offensive starters return. WR Teyo Johnson will continue to burn Pac-10 corners.	Only two starters return on defense. New coach, Buddy Teevens must teach new system. Three tough games on road in Pac-10.
ASU	Returns 8 defensive starters. Coach Dirk Koetter has a year under his belt.	Tough Pac-10 road schedule. Breaking in a JC quarterback transfer.
Arizona	Returns 17 starters. Outstanding RB in Clarence Farmer. Senior quarterback.	Three tough road games. Porous defense last season.
California	Returns 17 starters, led by senior QB Kyle Boller.	New head coach, Jeff Tedford. Must erase memory of a last year's disastrous season. Last in scoring offense and defense last season.

In seven of the last eight years, the Pac-10 champion (Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl representative (2002) has been led by a senior quarterback.

Table 2. Likely starter at quarterback

School	Likely starter	YR	Pass Efficiency 2001
WSU	Jason Gesser	SR	142.0
USC	Carson Palmer	SR	125.5
UCLA	Cory Paus	SR	132.8
UW	Cody Pickett	JR	124.9
Oregon	Jason Fife	JR	132.93 *
OSU	Derek Anderson	JR	88.76
Tree	Chris Lewis	JR	135.5
Zona	Jason Johnson	SR	135.2
ASU	A. Goodenough	JR	**
Cal	Kyle Boller	SR	110.24

* Threw nine passes last season

** JC Transfer

Oregon State, Arizona, and California each return seventeen starters.

Table 3. Returning starters

School	Returning Starters *
Oregon State	17 (7,8, 2)
Arizona	17 (9,6,2)
California	17 (7,8,2)
Washington	15 (7,6,2)
USC	14 (8,5,1)
ASU	14 (5,8,1)
UCLA	13 (6,5,2)
Oregon	13 (5,6,2)
WSU	13 (7,5,1)
Tree	10 (7,2,1)

* Offense, defense, specialists (data obtained from an article written by Ted Miller of the Seattle P-I).

Of its current coaches, Mike Bellotti and Rick Neuheisel are the winningest (highest win percentages) coaches in the Pac-10.

Table 4. Head coaches and their records in the Pac-10

School	Head Coach	Won/Lost	No. *	Pct.
UO	Mike Bellotti	60-23	7	.723
UW	Rick Neuheisel	26-10	3	.722
OSU	Dennis Erickson	23-12	3	.66
UCLA	Bob Toledo	42-27	6	.61
USC	Pete Carroll	6-6	1	.5
WSU	Mike Price	72-75	13	.49
UA	John Mackovic	5-6	1	.45
ASU	Dirk Koetter	4-7	1	.36
Tree	Buddy Teevens	0-0	0	.0
Cal	Jeff Tedford	0-0	0	.0

* Number of seasons in Pac-10 as a head coach

Table 5. Pac-10 road games that will be tough to win

School	Road Killa's
WSU	UCLA
UCLA	OSU, Washington
Oregon	UCLA, WSU, OSU
USC	Oregon, WSU, UCLA
OSU	ASU, Washington, USC
Stanford	ASU, Oregon, UCLA
Arizona	Washington, Stanford, OSU
Washington	Oregon, ASU, WSU, USC
ASU	Oregon, WSU, USC, Arizona
California	Washingon, ASU, USC, OSU

Table 6. Home/away records from 1997-2001 (Pac-10 games only)

Team	W/L	Pct.	Home	Pct.	Away	Pct.	Diff	Rnk
UW	28-12	.7	15-5	.75	13-7	.65	.10	T3
UO	28-12	.7	17-3	.85	11-9	.55	.30	T1
UCLA	24-16	.6	15-5	.75	9-11	.45	.30	T1
Tree	22-18	.55	12-8	.6	10-10	.5	.10	T3
UA	19-21	.475	8-12	.4	11-9	.55	-.15	6
ASU	19-21	.475	11-9	.55	8-12	.4	.15	2
USC	19-21	.475	10-10	.5	9-11	.45	.05	T4
OSU	16-24	.4	11-9	.55	5-15	.25	.30	T1
WSU	16-24	.4	8-12	.4	8-12	.4	.0	5
Cal	9-31	.23	5-15	.25	4-16	.2	.05	T4

Table 7. Pac-10 schedule 2002

August 24
ASU at Nebraska (BCA)
August 29	August 31
Northern Arizona at Arizona	Baylor at California
Eastern Washington at ASU	Mississippi State at Oregon
Eastern Kentucky at OSU	Nevada at WSU
	Washington at Michigan

September 2	September 7
Auburn at USC	Central Florida at ASU
	New Mexico State at Cal
	Fresno State at Oregon
	Colorado State at UCLA
	San Jose State at Washington
	Idaho at WSU
	Oregon State at Temple
	Stanford at Boston College

September 14	September 21
Utah at Arizona	Air Force at California
Idaho at Oregon	Portland State at Oregon
UNLV at OSU	Fresno State at OSU
San Jose State at Stanford	Colorado at UCLA
ASU at San Diego State	Wyoming at Washington
California at Michigan State	Montana State at WSU
UCLA at Oklahoma State	Arizona at Wisconsin
USC at Colorado	USC at Kansas State
WSU at Ohio State

September 28	October 5
Stanford at ASU	Oregon at Arizona
WSU at California	Cal at Washington
OSU at USC	UCLA at OSU
North Texas at Arizona	USC at WSU
Idaho at Washington	North Carolina at ASU
UCLA at San Diego State	Stanford at Notre Dame

October 12	October 19
Arizona at Washington	Arizona at Stanford
OSU at ASU	ASU at Oregon
California at USC	UCLA at Cal
Oregon at UCLA	Washington at USC
WSU at Stanford

October 26	November 2
WSU at Arizona	Arizona at OSU
Washington at ASU	ASU at WSU
Cal at OSU	Stanford at Oregon
USC at Oregon	UCLA at Washington
Stanford at UCLA

November 9	November 16
UCLA at Arizona	Arizona at Cal
Cal at ASU	ASU at USC
Oregon at WSU	Washington at Oregon
OSU at Washington	OSU at Stanford
USC at Stanford	WSU at UCLA

November 23	November 29
Stanford at Cal	ASU at Arizona
Oregon at OSU
USC at UCLA
Washington at WSU

November 30
Notre Dame at USC
WSU at Hawaii