How the Buffs and Dawgs compare statistically

How the Buffs and Dawgs compare statistically
Rich Linde, 10 October 2011

Colorado (1-5, 0-3 Pac-12) faces Washington (4-1, 2-0 Pac-12) on Saturday at Husky Stadium, Seattle. The Buffaloes are coming off a 48-7 loss at Stanford, while the Huskies had a bye week. They share two common opponents, Hawaii and California. Hawaii beat Colorado 34-7 in Honolulu and lost to the Huskies 40-32 in Seattle. California beat Colorado 36-33 (OT) in Boulder and lost to Washington 31-23 in Seattle.

Colorado is coached by Jon Embree (1-5), who previously coached the tight ends for the Washington Redskins before assuming the head coaching duties at Colorado this year. Steve Sarkisian (16-14) is in his third year at Washington, having taken over a team that had gone 0-12 in 2008.

According to ESPN blogger Ted Miller, "Colorado receiver Paul Richardson is out for 2-3 weeks with a sprained knee. Richardson is the Buffaloes best receiver, so this is big hit."

Coach Embree has suspended 5 players for undisclosed team rules' violations; none of the violations involved legal issues or trouble with the law. Four of the suspended players were backups for a secondary that is already suspect, as the Buffs are ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency defense. The Huskies are ranked 2nd in the league in pass efficiency offense.

Tyler Hansen, a Senior, is a mobile quarterback who has rushed for 410 yards and 7 touchdowns over his career. His passing efficiency, 136.07, ranks 9th in the league.

Rodney Stewart (5-foot-6, 175, Senior) is a shifty runner with good speed and a dynamo of the now-you-see-him-now-you-don't variety coming off a screen pass.

Stewart's 71.83 rushing yards per game ranks 8th in the conference, and he is averaging 5 pass receptions per game. Over his career at Colorado, he has rushed for 3,175 yards, scored 22 touchdowns and has caught 74 passes for 815 yards. He has posted 213 yards and one touchdown on kickoff returns this season.

Senior LB Josh Hartigan is tied for 2nd in the conference in sacks; the Buffs are tied for first in sacks with 17 on the season.

The formula for beating Washington seems simple enough: Stop RB Chris Polk and then pressure young QB Keith Price, hoping he'll make some mistakes as he did in the first half of the Utah game when Polk was neutralized. Washington's feckless pass defense, the worst in the league, speaks for itself. Beating Washington at Husky Stadium, however, will be a formidable task for a team that has lost 19-consecutive road games.

In the statistics below, Washington dominates in 3 out of the 5 categories of measure, including the all important category, "Scoreboard, Baby." Two categories are tied. UW wins in 17 out of the 26 individual comparisons.

Our prediction: Washington 35, Colorado 28, in a heart stopper.

Colorado

Washington

1. Ball Control

Time of Possession
30:23 5 29:47 6

3rd-down conversions
34.1 11 46.9% 5

4th-down conversions
57.1 3 50% t-5

First downs
107; 17.8 9 99; 19.8 11 *

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense
94.50 11 149.4 5

Passing Offense
254.83 8 241.8 9

Rushing Defense
133.0 7 104.0 3

Passing Defense
250.33 7 323.0 12

Pass Eff Defense
147.2 10 132.9 5

Pass Eff Offense
134.64 9 172.5 2

Total Offense
349.33 11 391.2 9

Total Defense
383.33 7 427.0 11

Sacks
17 t-1 8 10

Sacks Allowed
16 12 11 8

3. Mistakes

Penalties
81.7 12 62.8 6

Opponent Penalties
71.7 3 50.0 9

Turnover Margin
.00 t-6 1.0 2

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns
17.34 12 26.8 1

Punt Returns
4.33 10 7.6 7

Punting net/punt
37.56 2 36.9 6

Kickoff coverage
41.0 11 42.1 9

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals
.727 7 .875 t-3

Redzone Offense
81.2% 7 85.7% 5

Redzone Defense
92.9% 11 80.0% t-5

Points For
21.5 11 34.0 6

Points Against
33.33 11 29.4 8

* UW wins over the Buffs in average number of first downs per game.