How the 'Cats and Dawgs compare statistically
Rich Linde, 25 October 2011

Arizona (2-5, 1-4 Pac-12) faces Washington (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) this upcoming Saturday at Husky Stadium, Seattle. The Wildcats thumped UCLA, 48-12, last Thursday, while Washington was blown out by Stanford, 65-21, last Saturday. 

Arizona has lost four games to teams ranked in the top 25: Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon and USC. Washington has lost to Nebraska and Stanford, both of them ranked in the top 25.

Arizona is coached by Tim Kish (1-0), formerly a defensive coordinator and linebackers coach at UA, who replaced Mike Stoops who was fired two weeks ago. Kish, 57, has been named an interim coach, in this his first head-coaching experience. Steve Sarkisian (16-15) is in his third year at Washington, having taken over a team that had gone 0-12 in 2008.

RB Chris Polk leads the league in rushing, posting an average of 124.6 yards per game. Arizona QB Nick Foles (6-foot-5, 240) leads the league in passing average per game (363 yards) and total offense (351.3 yards per game).

Two defensive starters for the 'Cats, cornerback Shaquille Richardson and nickel back Jourdon Grandon, won't play against the Huskies because of their roles in a midfield brawl during the Wildcats' win over UCLA. Another corner, Lyle Brown, and safety Mark Watley have been suspended for the first half.

Offensively, the Huskies dominate the Wildcats on the ground, while the reverse is true through the air.

A note of caution for the Huskies: Ranked 11th in the conference in rushing, 'Zona generated an inspired ground game against UCLA last Thursday, posting 254 yards on 46 carries, nearly double the previous season high of 129, set against USC.

The formula for beating Washington seems simple enough: Stop RB Chris Polk and then pressure young QB Keith Price, hoping he'll make some mistakes as he did in the first half of the Utah game when Polk was neutralized. Both teams feature feckless pass defenses, the worst two in the league, UW ranking 11th and UA ranking 12th. Beating the Dawgs at Husky Stadium will be a formidable task as they are 4-0 at home this season. Arizona hasn't won on the road since it beat UCLA last October.

In the statistics below, Washington dominates in 2 out of the 5 categories of measure, including the all important category, "Scoreboard, Baby." One category is tied. UW wins in 16 out of the 26 individual comparisons.

Our prediction: Washington 35, Arizona 31, in a cliffhanger.

 

Arizona

Washington

1. Ball Control                            

Time of Possession	29:18	9	29:29	8
3rd-down conversions	42.4	7	50.6%	2
4th-down conversions	55.6%	3	50%	t-6
First downs	182	1	149	9

2. Blocking and Tackling

Rushing Offense	97.9	11	173.4	3
Passing Offense	373.1	1	247.7	8
Rushing Defense	173.3	10	146.9	7
Passing Defense	290.9	12	284.4	11
Pass Eff Defense	154.7	12	132.8	7
Pass Eff Offense	151.6	5	166.0	2
Total Offense	471.1	3	421.1	8
Total Defense	464.1	12	431.3	10
Sacks	5	12	13	t-8
Sacks Allowed	14	t-7	14	t-7

3. Mistakes

Penalties	63.3	6	66.1	8
Opponent Penalties	61.4	7	48.3	11
Turnover Margin	-.14	t-9	.14	t-4

4. Field Position

Kickoff Returns	20.7	7	25.3	3
Punt Returns	5.5	8	8.3	6
Punting net/punt	38.3	4	37.7	6
Kickoff coverage	45.9	4	42.4	9

5. Scoreboard, Baby

Field Goals	.5	12	.8	7
Redzone Offense	82.8%	7	88.9%	3
Redzone Defense	86.1%	8	85.7%	t-6
Points For	30.3	7	34.7	3
Points Against	33.9	10	33.7	9