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The passing woes of Jake by the Lake
Are certain to pass
Richard Linde, 1 October 2007

What's wrong with QB Jake Locker's passing? They say he locks onto his primary receivers too much, that some of his passes sail on him and that he hurries some of his short passes.

For instance, in the USC game (a 27-24 Huskies loss), Locker continued his erratic passing by missing three open receivers in or near the end zone.  His pass efficiency on the game was a horrible 66.29, which is based on completing 13 of 28 passes for 90 yards, with one interception and no touchdowns.

Since 1979 when the pass-efficiency formula was first developed, NCAA passers have improved on technique and receivers have become more sure-handed, while the liberal use of hands rules for offensive linemen has given passers more time to look for an open receiver. An average passer who sported a 100 rating from years' past would be considered a poor passer in college football today

This week, Washington ranks last in the conference in pass efficiency, pass offense and total offense. Out of 119 teams, it ranks 104th in the nation in pass-efficiency offense.

USC's potent defense, obviously, had much to do with Locker's and the team's inefficiency, along with some bruising hits Locker took.

For example, he took a helmet to the kidneys on one play and on another was hurled backwards by the part of his shoulder pads protruding from the back of his neck. He landed on his backside first, then his back, and finally banged his head and helmet helplessly on the field turf. A late hit out of bounds early on appeared to shake him up, though he said it looked worse than it was.

All in all, it was the worst physical beating I've seen a UW quarterback take since the one Taylor Barton suffered at the hands of UCLA in 2001. Barton is the last Husky quarterback to beat USC, when UW won 27-24 at Husky Stadium on October 6, 2001.

Also, it rained during the game and the ball was slippery. USC QB John David Booty didn't have a great night either, saying that although the ball wasn't wet, it was slippery to throw. Booty's PE on the game was an anemic 105.74, vis à vis a pass efficiency that stands at 138.9 this season.

Locker told the media that he was releasing the ball too high, which I tend to discount, partially, because he was put on the spot by a questioner. It's not in his character to blame his receivers, an injury or the weather on his ineffectiveness.

Offensive coordinator Tim Lappano thinks Locker's adrenaline may be running too high at times, which may account for some overthrown passes. Certainly, his receivers have dropped some balls this season.

His passing-efficiency rating over the first five games of his young career stands at 103.2, a number that places him fourth on the list of UW's most recent quarterbacks. (See the table below). Currently, he ranks tenth in the conference in passing efficiency. Dennis Dixon of Oregon leads the Pac-10 with a rating of 168.9, which is good for eighth in NCAA Division I-A football.

Overall, Locker is completing 51.8% of his passes. He has thrown for 794 yards, 6 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Because of his running ability, he ranks fifth in the conference in total offense, averaging 241 yards per game.

He was supposed to have worked on his passing accuracy over the summer months by improving his footwork. However, without a running game to give him more time to throw on rhythm, it's too early in the young man's career to say that his inaccuracy is a generic problem. Most likely his passing accuracy against USC was affected by the weather, the lack of offensive rhythm, some hits he took, and by his youth and inexperience.

It should be mentioned that in his first five games, Montlake Jake has suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune by going up against the number-one-and-number-four teams in the nation, USC and Ohio State, respectively. In his fourth game, once eleventh ranked UCLA was no slouch on defense either.

Coach Willingham is smiling and looking happier on the sidelines these days -- a Pete Carroll kind of thing. Are his steely stare and stern look just a passing fancy, pun intended? Coach Ty may know something we fans don't know.

The coach has a winning aura about him, and will eventually recruit a championship team around Locker -- which is certain to end the passing woes of Jake by the lake.

While we fans wait patiently for Locker to develop into his expected promise, images of a BCS title game decked out in brilliant purple play on a virtual jumbotron at a refurbished Husky Stadium somewhere in the future. Once we are all on the same frequency -- the fans, the promise, the images, the refurbishment -- virtual turns to real and all hell will beak loose in the upper echelon of the Pac-9, within those conference members who buried the Huskies back in 1993, for the Dawgs will be back, seeking vengeance for themselves, their loyal fans and former coach Don James.

Next time around, no one will stop us.

----------

As a result of all the penalty yardage (161 yards) USC drew against Washington, the Huskies lead the conference in opponent penalties this week. Washington also leads the conference in penalties incurred, ahead of Stanford, no less. The smart guys at the Tree always lead that stat. Washington ranks third in the conference in pass defense. UW is a well-coached team. 

Table 1. Recent UW quarterbacks and pass efficiency.

I threw this table in as a matter of interest only. It's too early in Jake's career to compare his passing with other Husky quarterbacks.
 

Name G C A Y P I TD Eff
Cody Pickett 38 792 1373 9916 58.0 42 53 124.9
Isaiah Stanback 37 269 523 3868 51.4 12 22 122.9
M. Tuiasosopo 42 418 761 5501 54.9 28 31 121.7
Jake Locker 5 73 141 794 51.8 7 6 103.2
Carl Bonnell 19 95 224 1195 42.1 15 7 84.14
Casey Paus 17 126 297 1627 42.4 18 7 84.10

Table 2. 11-stat comparator.

In our 11-stat comparator, Washington has an average national ranking of 65.6, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.

Arizona State, the Huskies next opponent, has an average national ranking of 24.3, a number that has been skewed upwards by sacks allowed. Looking at the PEO/PED stats, I would guess that Locker might have another bad night throwing the ball.

T TO TD RO RD PEO PED SO SD SF SA TM AV
UW 93 83 53 86 104 46 59 59 46 34 58 65.6
ASU 24 16 43 12 9 6 17 6 20 100 14 24.3

 

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