Common sense tells me that I could predict the order of finish in the Pacific-10 Conference off the top of my head and come somewhat close to the actual order of how the teams will finish. Instead, I did it the hard way, comparing each team in the conference, side-by-side, in a number of positional categories, using a table-driven method, nine tables in all.

Table 1 summarizes the point totals that feed directly into the rankings immediately below. USC has the most points, 99, and WSU has the least, 34. The point totals from Tables 2 through Table 9 feed Table 1, the rankings table. Wire this stuff into a spreadsheet and you're good to go, so, for example, if you decide to lower Washington's ranking in Table 4 (running backs), its point total in Table 1 (rankings) automatically changes. 

Since the conference is in a constant state of flux, when news concerning a conference team becomes available, I can convert the news to a number and plug the number into a table. Voila! The rankings are shuffled before my very eyes.

Warning: Just the same, don't try this at home.

Fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth places up for grabs

Note that in table 1, Washington (59), Arizona (57), OSU (56), and UCLA (53) all lie within a six-point range of each other. A minor tweaking of the tables can change their relative order in such a way as to say that the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth place positions in the conference are up for grabs -- a roll of the dice. Forthcoming injuries is one way the dice may roll. The other six teams are spread out from each other.

Fruitbaskets and neighborhood gatherings

Considering the four-team craps shoot, the Huskies are the most deserving of the fifth-place position up for grabs. The conference's unfair hammering in 1993 cost the Huskies their head coach, Don James. "Snitch-gate" in June 2003 eventually cost the NCAA $2.5 million, that settlement buttressing the notion it acted inappropriately. The results of the NCAA's sneak attack -- in violation of NCAA bylaws and one for the conspiracy theorists -- have cost the Dawgs a winning record and two football coaches, whence they've posted 18 wins against 41 losses.

Rankings

1. USC

Returns: 4 on offense; 7 on defense and 2 specialists

Home: UO, ASU, UW, Cal -- (74) *

Away: OSU, WSU, UA, SU, UCLA -- (48)

* Degree of difficulty. Average of totals in table 1. All of USC's tough games are at home. Conference average = 64.

Offense: The Trojans must replace four members of its offensive line and its quarterback, John David Booty. Coach Pete Carroll returns a cadre of skilled running backs, as well as some capable receivers. QB Mark Sanchez gives Troy more mobility at quarterback than it's had the past few seasons.

Note: Fourteen members of the incoming freshmen class are rated either four or five stars by scout.com, so there is plenty of talent to draw from.

Three years ago Bush burned Washington and now he's burning Troy. ;-)

Defense: Troy needs to replace two members of its DL. Its linebackers and secondary are among the best in the league.

Area for improvement: turnover margin (see Table 3).

2. Oregon

Returns: 6 on offense; 7 on defense and 2 specialists

Home: UW, UCLA, SU, UA = (53)

Away: WSU, USC, ASU, Cal, OSU = (68)

Note: See our evaluation of Oregon. Also, Oregon has recruited six Jucos to plug its graduation losses.

Offense: The Ducks need to replace QB Dennis Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart, both of them statistical leaders in the Pac-10 last season. Max Unger leads a solid offensive line, and WR Jasison Williams and TE Ed Dickson should provide expected starting QB Justin Roper with a nice pass-catching combo. Big things are expected from incoming Juco LaGarette Blount at running back.

Defense: DE Nick Reed led the Pac-10 in tackles for a loss last season. Coach Mike Bellotti hopes that incoming Juco 5-star Justin Thompson will fill one the holes vacated by two of his defensive linemen from last season. The linebackers are a question mark, but the secondary could be among the best in the conference.

Areas for improvement: total defense and sacks against.

Note: Does Oregon's chief benefactor, along with its gaudy uniforms, make for calling the school, "Whoregon, the Lady of the Knight," or is that going too far? ;-)

3. Arizona State University

Returns: 7 on offense, 7 on defense, and 2 specialists.

Home: SU, UO, WSU, UCLA = (53)

Away: Cal, USC, OSU, UW, UA = (68)

News flash: Dennis Erickson, the most peripatetic head coach in college football, is soon to be joined by Tyrone Willingham, according to the "Hades Hot-seat News." ;-)

Offense: QB Rudy Carpenter (PE 145.1) returns for his senior season. WRs Chris McGaha and Michael Jones provide Carpenter with two capable receivers. Three members of the OL need replacing. RB Keegan Herring (815 yards, five TDs) should have another good year, providing the OL is rebuilt successfully.

Defense: Standouts Oscar Bolden and SS Troy Nolan return to the secondary. We gave ASU eight points for its DL (See Tables 1 and 7)

Areas for improvement: rushing offense, total offense and sacks against.

4. California 

Returns: 5 on offense, 7 on defense and 1 specialist

Home: ASU, UCLA, UO, SU, UW = (64)

Away: WSU, UA, USC, OSU = (62)

Offense: Who will be the starting quarterback when Cal opens its season against Michigan State at Berkeley, Nate Longshore or Kevin Riley? Three starters return to the offensive line, but there are questions at running back and wide receiver.

Defense: The linebackers unit will be the strength of the defensive squad, a unit we ranked second best in the Pac-10 behind USC's.

Areas for improvement: sacks for and turnover margin.

5. Washington (hot seat for sale)

Returns: 7 on offense, 6 on defense and 2 specialists

Home: SU, OSU, ASU, UCLA = (58)

Away: UO, UA, USC, WSU, Cal = (69)

Offense: If for some reason QB Jake Locker is lost for most of the season, please re-position the Huskies near the bottom of the pack. Not only is Locker the most exciting player to matriculate at Washington since Hugh McElhenny, but he also sells tickets to the games, pitches peanuts and popcorn in the stands and helps persuade PSAs to sign on the dotted line. (*)

We rate Locker as the third best QB in the league and include him in the running back category, where we rank the Huskies second best in the conference, even though TB Louis Rankin has graduated. The Huskies hope that C Juan Garcia can successfully rehab a Liz franc foot injury for a mid-season return. The WR corps needs rebuilding.

Defense: Five of the six top spots on the DL need replacing; a couple of incoming freshmen could help out here. The linebackers look solid and the secondary should be improved. New defensive coordinator Ed Donatell hopes that linebacker EJ Savannah's broken arm heals by late August. 

Areas for improvement: almost all the defensive categories; pass efficiency offense; turnover margin.

Note: Some might say that ranking Locker in the QB category includes his ability to run the ball; therefore, adding him as  a running back (see Table 4) is an overkill for UW. UW loses at least 6 points from the rankings (Table 1) if Locker is dropped from the RB category. As a consequence, the Dawgs drop to eighth place behind UCLA. On the other hand, Locker is the conference's leading rusher returning from last season.

(*) Locker versus McElhenny? I played my trump card, for age has its privileges.

6, Arizona

Returns: 10 on offense, 3 on defense and 2 skilled

Home: UW, Cal,  USC, OSU, ASU = (73)

Away: UCLA, SU, WSU, UO = (54)

Offense: The 'Cats return 10 starters to their offense (the good news), to an offense that ranked 67th in the nation in total offense. However, QB Willie "the yard man" Tuitama returns. Tuitama pasted 510 passing yards on the Huskies last season and averaged 306.9 passing yards per game, the second best in the league. Four starters on the OL return, as well as a galaxy of wide receivers. So what could go wrong:

Defense: Yep, only 3 starters return to a defense that ranked 53rd in the country.  MLB Ronnie Palmer, SS Cam Nelson, and FS Nate Ness (neatness?) are the sole veterans.

Areas for improvement: rushing offense and sacks against, and most likely a whole host of defensive numbers as the season progresses.

7. OSU

Returns: 7 on offense, 3 on defense and 0 specialists

Home: USC, WSU, ASU, Cal, UO = (74)

Away: SU, UW, UCLA, UA  = (53)

Offense: The Beavers hope that James Rodgers can replace Yvenson Bernard (1214 yards) at running back. OSU returns 3 members of its OL, as well as QBs Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao, both of whom started games last season. I've penciled in Canfield as the projected starter, although Moevao will have something to say about that.

Defense: The entire front seven is gone. OSU led the nation in rushing defense last season and its defense sent Washington's Jake Locker to the hospital in their game at Corvallis, which ended in a quasi-donnybrook. Cornerbacks Keenan Lewis and Brandon Hughes both return, as does FS Al Afflava. Expect DE Victor Butler to be a force on the front line.

Areas for improvement: pass efficiency offense and sacks against.

8. UCLA

Returns: 5 offense, 5 defense and 2 specialists

Home: UA, WSU, SU, OSU, USC = (57)

Away: UO, Cal, UW, ASU = (74)

Note: We think UCLA has the second best coaching staff in the league, with its hiring of head coach Rick Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Norm Chow, to go along with in-place-defensive-coordinator DeWayne Walker who turned down an offer from Washington just after Neuheisel was hired.

Rolling the dice, Neuheisel hopes to bid in an auction that will take his Bruins to the Las Vegas Bowl. ;-) (joke).

Offense: QBs Pat Cowan and Ben Olson were injured on successive plays during spring practice, and Cowan will be out for the year, with Olson expected to return by fall. The offensive line returns just two starters and needs rebuilding. TB Kahlil Bell (795 yards) is recovering from knee surgery. Redshirt Sean Sheller, once the projected starter at right tackle, may miss the season due to injuries from an accident he recently suffered.

However, this week, Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times reports that "Donovan Edwards, a 6-foot-5, 285-pound tackle from Diablo Valley Community College, (has) committed to UCLA and will be eligible to play this fall. Edwards, who will attend summer school to try to qualify for admission to UCLA, will have four years to play three seasons."

For Neuheisel, shades of Francisco Tipoti?

Defense: The secondary needs rebuilding, with CB Alterraun Verner the only returnee. LBs Kyle Bosworth and Reggie Carter both return, however, only two members of the defensive line return, making that a work in progress.

Areas for improvement: total offense, pass efficiency offense, turnover margin and sacks against. 

9. Stanford Tree

Returns: 7 on offense, 9 on defense and 0 specialists

Home: OSU, UA, WSU, USC = (62)

Away: ASU, UW, UCLA, UO, Cal = (70)

Note: In table 1, we ranked head coach Jim Harbaugh (4-8) ahead of Washington's head coach Tyrone Willingham (11-25) because Harbaugh finished ahead of Willingham in the conference last season and posted a huge upset over USC at the Coliseum. Willingham is yet to post a signature win during his three years with the Huskies. Some say he'll need at least six wins this season to finish out the last year of his contract in 2009.

The fiery Harbaugh, out of the Big Ten, has taken anger management classes from Bo, Woody and Ditka, according to rumor. ;-)

Offense: Returning QB Tavita Pritchard led the Tree to the upset win over Troy, and started seven games in 2007. Michigan transfer Jason Forcier and sophomore Alex Loukas will push Pritchard for the starting job at quarterback, as, for one thing, Pritchard's PE was an anemic 97.5 last year. The offensive line looks good, with three starters returning. Richard Sherman (651 yards on 39 receptions) provides  the Tree with its only significant experience at WR.

Defense: Nine starters return to a defense that finished 98th in the country last season and next to last in the conference, just ahead of the Huskies. Its experience from last season should make it a better unit, however.

Areas for improvement: Almost every category shown by table 3.

10. Washington State

Returns: 6 on offense, 8 on defense and 1 specialist

Home: Cal, UO, USC, UA, UW = (74)

Away: UCLA, OSU, SU, ASU = (58)

Note: We rated the Cougars' coaching staff last in the conference because Paul Wulff is replacing Bill Doba as the Cougars' head coach, and we simply don't have a handle on Wulff. The Cougars lose eight players to APR deficiencies and must contend with some off-field problems. If Wulff can breathe some fresh air into the team, clearing the miasma that hangs over Pullman, I'll plug some new numbers into my tables to better the Cougars' ranking.

Offense: Four starters return to the offensive line. Flanker Brandon Gibson returns, having led the conference in receiving yards (1,180 yards) last season. Dwight Tardy and Chris Ivory return to the running-back corps.

Defense: Eight veterans return to a defense that ranked eighth in the Pac-10 last season.

Areas for improvement: rushing offense, scoring defense and turnover margin.

Table 1 below compares each of the teams in the Pac-10 position-by-position, where QB represents the quarterbacks; RB=the running backs; O=the offensive line, R=the receivers; DL=the defensive line; LB=the linebackers; and S=the secondary. Refer to Table 3 for the meaning of the column headed by T3, which relates to team comparison's for 11 statistical categories from last season. The category RS refers to returning starters and CS refers to the coaching staffs' comparison.

Table 1, Predicted order of finish

Team	T3	RS	CS	QB	RB	OL	R	DL	LB	S	Tot
USC	10	13	10	7	10	9	10	10	10	10	99
UO	9	15	8	6	8	10	7	9	5	9	86
ASU	8	16	7	10	6	3	9	8	8	6	81
Cal	6	13	6	5	5	8	5	7	9	7	71
UW	2	15	2	8	9	5	2	4	7	5	59
UA	5	15	4	9	7	6	8	1	1	1	57
OSU	7	10	5	4	4	7	6	3	2	8	56
UCLA	4	12	9	5	3	2	4	5	6	3	53
SU	1	16	3	1	1	4	1	6	4	4	41
WSU	3	15	1	2	2	1	3	2	3	2	34

Table 2, Pac-10 quarterbacks

Pos	QB	Team	YR	PE	note
1	Rudy Carpenter	ASU	SR	145.1
2	Willie Tuitama	UA	SR	134.2
3	Jake Locker	UW	SO*	105.0
4	Mark Sanchez	USC	JR	123.3	*
5	Nate Longshore	Cal	SR	123.3	&
6	Justin Roper	UO	SO*	125.46	#
7	Ben Olson	UCLA	SR	115.28
8	Sean Canfield	OSU	SR	106.4	+
9	Gary Rogers	WSU	SR	124.68
10	Tavita Pritchard	SU	JR*	97.5	**

The order of  the teams in the table below might well may be their order of finish in the season ahead. A conference that features so many wide-open passing attacks also has some of the worst passing teams (see PEO) in the country from the standpoint of efficiency -- OSU, UCLA, Washington and Stanford.

Table 3. 11-stat comparator from the 2007 season

In our 11-stat comparator, Washington, for example, has an average national ranking of 69.2, out of 119 Division I-A teams, where TO=Total Offense, TD=Total Defense, RO=Rushing Offense, RD=Rushing Defense, PEO=Pass Efficiency Offense, PED=Pass Efficiency Defense, SO=Scoring Offense, SD=Scoring Defense, SF=Sacks For, SA=Sacks allowed, and TM=Turnover Margin.