When the Pac-10 media brigade meet in Los Angeles on July 24, I’m guessing they’ll rank Washington seventh in the conference or lower. See “Preseason previews in love with Locker.”

Stop the presses.

With all due respect, I think Washington has as good a chance as its three competitors – Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State – to finish in the top half of the Pacific 10.

I’m not just singing “Bow Down to Washington,” while Spirit barks to its beat, the Sonics go boom, and coach Dick Baird joins me in the chorus. I’m talking analysis, ahem.

See our “Pacific 10 preview” for the formula we used to rank the conference teams. In that preview, Washington, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona all were within a six-point range of each other, while the other six teams in the conference were separated from them by margins of twelve points (see table 2 below). The rankings cede the four top spots to USC, Oregon, ASU, and Cal and the two bottom spots to Stanford and WSU.

The four in-between teams must overcome some serious graduation losses. That's why they're tweeners. UCLA needs to cobble together an offensive line and find a healthy quarterback; OSU must replace its defensive front seven; Arizona loses eight defensive starters; and the Huskies lose five wide receivers and five of its six top spots on the defensive line.

Table 1. Contenders for fifth place in Pac-10

Team	Home	Away	Shortcomings
UW	OSU, UCLA,	UA	Loses 5 WRS, 5 out of 6 on DL
UA	UW, OSU	UCLA	Loses 8 starters on defense
UCLA	UA, OSU	UW	Must cobble OL; find healthy QB
OSU	none	UW, UCLA, UA	Loses front 7 on defense

To finish in fifth place, the Huskies need to beat the Beavers, Bruins and Wildcats, along with the Tree and Cougars -- not to say that some gratuitous wins, here and there, wouldn’t be accepted. Winning those five games gives the Huskies at least a 5-4 record in the league, where 5-4 gave UCLA and Oregon top-half spots last season. Games against Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon State are at home. Games against OSU and UCLA have more at stake than did the nerds versus the jocks in the Revenge of the Nerds.

The game with northwest cousin OSU could smack of an old fashioned trip to the woodshed, considering last year’s Fuedin’, Fussin’ and Fightin’. That game was marred by poor officiating, fights among the players, cheap shots, four player ejections and six personal fouls. What appeared to be a serious injury to QB Jake Locker was clearly the catalyst that triggered the emotional upheaval, and the outcome of his injury wasn't known until the game was almost over.

The contest with UCLA marks the glib, golden boy’s return to Husky Stadium. Many fans blame former coach Rick Neuheisel for the Huskies’ five-straight non-winning seasons. (*)

But that’s ancient history. The Dawgs need to powder the powder Blue to finish among the top five in the league, Rick’s forthcoming payback or not.

Here’s what the Huskies need to do to end up at least 5-4 in the conference.

• Avoid injuries: Trite as it is to say, the Dawgs must avoid injuries to some key players. Washington is vulnerable at the quarterback position and at the positions involving its wide receivers, running backs, and defensive linemen. In addition, center Juan Garcia needs to successfully rehab a foot injury, at least for a mid-season return.





• Make liberal use of freshmen: Washington’s freshmen class needs to help out. The class of 2008 was ranked fourteenth in the nation by scout.com. Some of its highly-rated players include TE/DE Kavario Middleton (five stars), along with four-star players DE Everrette Thompson, RB/WR Chris Polk, OG/DT Alameda Ta’amu, WR Jermaine Kearse, WR Cody Bruns, DT Craig Noble, and OT Senio Kelemete. The coaches are salivating.





• Build some depth and physical conditioning: The Huskies lost seven games last season in which leads or ties evaporated in the second half. A lack of depth contributed to the losses, in my opinion. The Huskies need to fourth-quarter their opponents, as former coach Jim Owens used to say. The Owens’ teams that won in the Rose Bowl were in better physical condition than their opponents. If the first three games against Oregon, BYU and Oklahoma get out of hand, the coaches will have a chance to build some depth among their young players. Losing big has its merits.





• Work the spread for all its worth: In addition to the spread formation, the offense is seemingly tied to a power running game (e.g., power I, two-back sets, etc.) because of the northwest’s inclement weather. If the power-running game isn’t effective this season, the offense needs to concentrate on the spread for the sake of simplicity – and, in the main, junk the power running scheme. How about running a no-huddle offense at times?





• Find a go-to guy: Duh! QB Jake Locker needs to find a sure-handed receiver he can count on. Will D’Andre Goodwin step to the fore?





• Improve its defense: Duh! Newly hired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell must shore up a defense that allowed the most yards per game in school history (446 yards). Because the team must rebuild a defensive line that has lost five of its six top spots and because of a strong cadre of returning linebackers, we’re guessing that Donatell might opt for a three/four defense.





• Find some inspirational mojo: If the Huskies start out 0-3 – which is somewhat likely – the coaches must convince the team that the season is not lost. With an 11-28 record at Washington, Coach Willingham will need to spin talk radio and his press conferences. Strong fan support will be needed for the rest of his games at Husky Stadium and on the road.

Going 5-4 in the conference is doable, but that goal alone won’t send the Dawgs to a bowl. Continuing with our scenario, beating Notre Dame at Husky Stadium sends the Huskies to a bowl game and, ironically, saves Willingham’s job, with a slap in the face to Charlie.

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(*) We blame the NCAA for the Huskies' downward spiral, the NCAA’s $2.5 million settlement with Neuheisel championing that notion. The NCAA's sneak attack on June 4, 2003 -- in violation of NCAA bylaws and one for the conspiracy theorists – sent the Dawgs into a tailspin, subsequently giving them a losing record (18 wins against 41 losses) and costing them two football coaches, Keith Gilbertson and Neuheisel.

Firing Jim Lambright compounded by the firing of Neuheisel was a huge mistake. According to the netherworld, fear of the NCAA was the reason UW fired Neuheisel.

Table 2 below compares each of the teams in the Pac-10 position-by-position, where QB represents the quarterbacks; RB=the running backs; O=the offensive line, R=the receivers; DL=the defensive line; LB=the linebackers; and S=the secondary. Refer to Table 3 (see Pacific 10 preview) for the meaning of the column headed by T3, which relates to team comparison's for 11 statistical categories from last season. The category RS refers to returning starters and CS refers to the coaching staffs' comparison.

Table 2. Predicted order of finish

Team	T3	RS	CS	QB	RB	OL	R	DL	LB	S	Tot
USC	10	13	10	7	10	9	10	10	10	10	99
UO	9	15	8	6	8	10	7	9	5	9	86
ASU	8	16	7	10	6	3	9	8	8	6	81
Cal	6	13	6	5	5	8	5	7	9	7	71
UW	2	15	2	8	9	5	2	4	7	5	59
UA	5	15	4	9	7	6	8	1	1	1	57
OSU	7	10	5	4	4	7	6	3	2	8	56
UCLA	4	12	9	5	3	2	4	5	6	3	53
SU	1	16	3	1	1	4	1	6	4	4	41
WSU	3	15	1	2	2	1	3	2	3	2	34

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