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Oregon Preview
Richard Linde, 5 June 2008

Washington opens its season on August 30, going against the Oregon Ducks at “let me Autzen here,” which is a familiar cry in the city of Eugene, Oregon on fall Saturdays.

Oregon returns 15 starters, 6 on offense, 7 on defense and 2 specialists.

Going into his fourteenth season at Oregon, head coach Mike Bellotti, the dean of Pac-10 coaches, has an overall head coaching record of 129-77-2. He has gone 106-52 at Oregon and is 65-41 in the Pac-10.  His teams have made 11 bowl appearances and have won 5 of them. Last season, Oregon (9-4) overwhelmed South Florida in the Brut Sun bowl, 56-21.

Bellotti earned more than $1.9 million in 2007, making him the second highest paid coach in the Pac-10. Bellotti’s rollover clause keeps five years remaining on his contract after each season. His overall compensation is incentivized by season ticket sales.

The Ducks lose key starters Jonathan Stewart and Dennis Dixon from last season. Stewart was the thirteenth overall pick in the NFL draft. Stewart led the conference in rushing and all-purpose yards last season (132.6 and 190.8 yards per game, respectively). Dixon led the conference in pass efficiency, posting a 161.2 rating.

Last season the Ducks led the conference in rushing offense, turnover margin, scoring offense, total offense, first downs, and red zone defense. They finished fourth in the conference with a 5-4 record, losing three consecutive games to close out the regular season after Dixon went down in the ASU game. The Ducks were ranked second in the in the BCS poll before Dixon was lost on the season.

In 2007, Oregon finished seventh in the conference in total defense.

In the spring game, the whites cleaned the greens’ clock, 36-3, as QB Justin Roper, the surprise hero of the Brut Sun bowl, did some spring cleaning. Roper hit Ed Dickson over the middle for 67 yards on his first throw, and later ran for a touchdown from eight yards out. He finished 3 of 7 for 82 yards. Last season, Roper completed 32 of 61 passes for 342 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, which gives him a pass efficiency rating of 125.46.

In Oregon’s spring game, both the green and white defensive teams combined to give up a generous 5.8 yards per carry, but managed to limit the passing game, allowing 16 of 46 passes while intercepting two balls and registering eight sacks. After the game, defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti was quoted as saying, “I think after spring ball, I am very pleased…I think that at defensive tackle we're going to be okay, we need to get a little bit tougher mentally. I think at free safety and rover, we’re going to be ok. Jury is still out on whose going to be our three top linebackers.”

The Ducks have six good quarterbacks, two of them in the personage of Roper and Nate Costa, both of whom will be vying for the starting spot in the fall. As rumored, Cody Kempt, caught up in some stiff competition at the position, is transferring to Montana State. Kempt was running neck-and-neck with BYU transfer Cade Cooper. Also in the race are freshmen Darron Thomas and Chris Harper.  Costa missed spring practices because of a surgically repaired knee.

However, Harper, a freshman from Wichita, has Mike Bellotti talking about a two-quarterback system come fall. "I can see (Harper) coming in and providing the same type of spark that Tim Tebow did as a true freshman at Florida. With the ball in his hands, he's as dangerous a quarterback as we've had.''

Harper (6’ 2.5”, 230) apparently matches Jake Locker in size. Roper (6’ 6”, 204) may need to bulk up a bit. Rivals.com ranks Costa as the nineteenth best dual-threat quarterback in the 2006 recruiting season and ranks Harper as the fourteenth best athlete in the 2008 season. Harper sports a 4.45 in the 40.  In the spring game, Harper ran for 67 yards on 14 carries, including a 27-yard scramble, and completed a 53-yard pass to Malachi Lewis, who made a one-handed grab.

QB Jeremiah Masoli (So, 6-0, 205, 4.5) will join the Ducks this summer. Out of CCSF and considered the top JC quarterback in the nation last year, Masoli completed 61.3 percent of his passes (258-of-421) for 3,592 yards and 30 touchdowns against 5 picks. He rushed for 448 yards and hit pay-dirt eleven times  -- this, the old fashioned way. His passing efficiency rating on the season was 154.09.

Last season against the Ducks, Locker ran for 78 yards and completed 12 of 31 passes for 257 yards, and 4 touchdowns against 1 interception. His pass efficiency was 144.48 on the game, the second highest rating for him of the 12 games he played. Oregon outscored UW, 55-34, amalgamating 661 total yards. Washington gave up a school record 446.4 yards per game last season, so its whole defense is suspect.

Logjam at QB Comment
Justin Roper Led the Ducks to a win in Sun Bowl
Nate Costa Sat out spring rehabbing a knee
Cody Kempt Transferred to Montana State
Cade Cooper BYU transfer
Chris Harper Outstanding spring game
Darron Thomas Struggled somewhat in spring game
Jeremiah Masoli Top JC quarterback in 2007

When the Dawgs meet the Ducks, there should be a whole lot of runnin’ goin’ on at the QB position.

The fact that DE Nick Reed and DB Patrick Chung are on the Bronko Nagurski watch list may give the Ducks some defensive bragging rights. Chung finished third in the conference in tackles last season, registering 117 total tackles. Reed led the conference in both sacks and tackles for a loss last season. CB Jairus Byrd’s 7 interceptions ranked him first in the conference, and he finished third in passes defended. Juniors Byrd and Walter Thurmond have been starting at cornerback since they were freshmen.

Max Unger, first team Pac-10 at the pivot last season, anchors an OL that features two other returning starters in LT Fenuki Tupou and RG Mark Lewis. Unger is a member of the 2008 Rimington Trophy watch list.

At tailback, JC transfer LaGarrette Blount (6-2, 235; 4.5) gives Oregon what looks to be a bruising running game, featuring two big bodies with tons of speed -- that is, if Chip Kelly gives either Harper or Masoli the green light in a two QB rotation with Roper, say.

The offensive line and defensive secondary are considered the strength of the team.

Here’s how Washington and Oregon matchup:

Quarterback: Edge goes to Washington. With his running ability and improvement as a passer this spring, Locker is arguably the best QB in the conference. There is no quarterback in the conference more valuable to his team than Locker.

Tailbacks: Blount is a powerhouse runner, who will be complimented by Jeremiah Johnson (54 carries, 315 yards) and Andre Crenshaw (82 carries, 415 yards). Washington’s only proven tailback, Brandon Johnson, should be ready by fall, having had minor arthroscopic surgery done on his knee. I’m giving Oregon my vote here.

Fullback: A very slight edge goes to UW, mainly because Oregon doesn’t list a fullback on its roster. Paul Homer and Luke Kravitz give UW a nice duo at what is becoming an antediluvian position.

Offense line: Edge goes to Oregon because of the stalwart Unger, who in football parlance does Yeoman duty. Max can play tackle, too, if his versatility is needed because of injuries along the front line. Possibly losing C Juan Garcia to what could be the whole season is a blow to the Huskies. He suffered a Liz-franc sprain in the spring game, and is currently rehabbing his left foot for a possible mid-season return.

Wide receivers: Big-time nod to Oregon. UW has lost five wide receivers to graduation. Oregon returns Jaison Williams (55 catches, 844 yards).  The 6-foot-5, 240 pound Williams gives Oregon QBs a big target to throw to. And then there is Ed Dickson (6-5, 240) at tight end. Also, at WR and TE, respectively, JC transfers Ellis Krout (6-4, 190, 4.55) and Zach Taylor (6-4, 233, 4.7) hardly qualify as mini-me targets.

Washington has several first-year guys who could drive Aliotti wonky. However, they are just that, first-year guys. The Dawgs’ only experienced receivers, D’Andre Goodwin and Curtis Shaw, caught eleven passes between them for 74 yards last season. Goodwin had a nice spring.

Tight end: Oregon wins out here with Dickson, who had 43 catches for 453 yards last season.

Defensive line: Oregon gets the nod here, with the return of DEs Reed and Will Tukaufu. Washington has lost 5 of its 6 top spots on the defensive line, and this position, in import, could be akin to pulling a crab at a regatta. To help plug the loss of DTs Dave Faaeteete and Jereme Gibbs, the Ducks are bringing in JC transfers Justin Thompson (5-stars, 6-5, 290) and Blake Ferras (3-stars, 6-5, 285). All in all, six of Oregon’s incoming class are JC transfers.

Linebackers: Give UW the edge because the jury is still out on the Ducks’ linebackers.

Leading the Huskies is LB E. J. Savannah, who finished sixth in the conference in tackles last season and registered 111 total tackles. Savannah has been in and out of the coaches’ doghouse, and recently broke his right humorous (arm) bone on 3 June, which the doctors say will require two to three months to heel. We’re guessing he’ll play against Oregon. Savannah was replaced in the early part of spring drills by walk-on Joshua Gage. Trenton Tuiasosopo and Donald Butler shared the middle and Mason Foster started at the other outside spot.

Oregon returns two seniors at LB, Jerome Boyd (6-2, 220) and John Bacon (6-4,230). But both of them missed the entire spring because of injuries.

In the Oregon’s spring game, middle linebacker Casey Mathews racked up five solo and five assisted tackles, with three of them being for a loss. He also recorded two sacks.

Defensive backs: Oregon gets the nod. Thurmond, Chung and Byrd give Oregon some veteran, proven personnel. UW looks for an improved secondary, but it will need time to gel.

Special teams: Oregon wins this category, even though some key personnel -- e.g., Jonathan Stewart, Oregon and Andy Russo, Washington – are no longer with the teams. Place kicker Matt Evenson and punter Josh Syria return for Oregon, as do Ryan Perkins, Nick Folk, and Jared Ballman for UW. Last season, Oregon finished sixth in punt return average, fifth in field goals, first in PAT kicking, fourth in kickoff coverage, second in kickoff returns and fifth in punting. Washington finished first, sixth, fifth, ninth, ninth, and sixth, respectively, in those categories. Newly hired assistant coach Brian White brings a fresh face to UW Special teams.

Category (2007, Pac-10) Ducks Dawgs
Punt return average 6th 1st
Field goals 5th 6th
PAT kicking 1st 5th
Kickoff coverage 4th 9th
Kickoff returns 2nd 9th
Punting 5th 6th

Coaching: The aging Bellotti, 57, trumps the Huskies’ head coach Tyrone Willingham, whose job, sitting on a powder keg, bemoans its 11-25 record at UW. We give offensive coordinator Chip Kelly the nod over his counterpart at UW, Tim Lappano. Hired for the 2007 season, Kelly can boast of accumulating both the most points and total yards in school history. Based on his twenty years of coaching in the Pac-10, Aliotti wins out over Ed Donatell, the newly hired defensive coordinator at Washington. Aliotti has coached fifteen years at Oregon.

The last-place Huskies have brought in three new assistant coaches: Donatell, along with Steve Gervais to coach running backs, and White to coach tight ends and special teams. All three incoming coaches have used up their players’ eligibility. ;-)

Final Score: Oregon 45, Washington 28.

Oregon has gone the JC route to plug some significant graduation losses, while Washington’s tough admission standards make it difficult to bring in junior college transfers, this according to a former recruiting coordinator at UW. We expect Washington’s offense to sputter its first time out, while Oregon’s offense should mirror its spring game and post some big numbers. Eugene’s fire department will be closely watching Willingham’s hot seat for the possibility of spontaneous combustion as the scoreboard heats up.

Six JC transfers, including Blount, Masoli and Thompson? The Michigan game last year, on national television, was quite a showcase for the Ducks. Yikes, let me Autzen here.

Richard Linde, aka Malamute can be reached at malamute@4malamute.com

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